Joe Donnelly vs Mike Braun

Poll was fielded 2743 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.

Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 67 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 65 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is R+0.4pt — within ±1pt.

Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2753 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2759 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2762 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Sample size of 377 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 2763 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Poll was fielded 2764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2769 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2776 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.

Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.

Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 2811 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.

Poll was fielded 2833 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2869 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2917 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.

Poll was fielded 2951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 2988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Commissioned by Axios, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Sample size of 1,809 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.