Races · Senate · 2012 · WY

Senate · class II · open seat

Dave Freudenthal vs John Barrasso

← WV Senate

Safe R — · 1 polls · 0 markets Last poll 5604d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 1 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 1 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:1 of 1 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1039	±3.0	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Barrasso 56.0 · Dave Freudenthal 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Nov 1	—	-18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 187 months ago (1/5/2011) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi