Races · Senate · 2012 · WV

Senate · class II · open seat

Joe Manchin vs John Raese

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Safe R — · 13 polls · 0 markets Last poll 5006d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 13 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 13 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:13 of 13 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
8/25/2012	R.L. Repass	1.00	—	401	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls5006d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5006d old Poll was fielded 5006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Joe Manchin 66.0 · John Raese 27.0	poll arch
4/28/2012	R.L. Repass	1.00	—	410	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls5125d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5125d old Poll was fielded 5125 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Joe Manchin 74.0 · John Raese 22.0	poll arch
10/2/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	932	±3.2	unknown	5334d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5334d old Poll was fielded 5334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 60.0 · Bill Maloney 29.0	poll arch
10/2/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	932	±3.2	unknown	5334d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5334d old Poll was fielded 5334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 49.0 · Shelley Moore Capito 38.0	poll arch
9/4/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	unknown	5362d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5362d old Poll was fielded 5362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 62.0 · John Raese 23.0	poll arch
9/4/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	unknown	5362d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5362d old Poll was fielded 5362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 60.0 · David McKinley 24.0	poll arch
9/4/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	unknown	5362d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5362d old Poll was fielded 5362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 52.0 · Shelley Moore Capito 36.0	poll arch
4/24/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	850	±3.4	unknown	5495d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5495d old Poll was fielded 5495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 61.0 · John Raese 29.0	poll arch
4/24/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	850	±3.4	unknown	5495d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5495d old Poll was fielded 5495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 63.0 · David McKinley 25.0	poll arch
4/24/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	850	±3.4	unknown	5495d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5495d old Poll was fielded 5495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 48.0 · Shelley Moore Capito 40.0	poll arch
1/23/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1105	±2.9	unknown	5586d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5586d old Poll was fielded 5586 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 60.0 · John Raese 31.0	poll arch
1/23/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1105	±2.9	unknown	5586d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5586d old Poll was fielded 5586 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 50.0 · Shelley Moore Capito 41.0	poll arch
1/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1058	—	unknown	5599d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5599d old Poll was fielded 5599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Joe Manchin 53.0 · David McKinley 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Nov 1	—	+9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 167 months ago (8/25/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi