Races · Senate · 2012 · PA

Senate · class II · open seat

Bob Casey, Jr. vs Tom Smith

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Tilt R — · 70 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4935d ago Rating 1d ago

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Polling average

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 70 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:70 of 70 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	507	±4.2	unknown	4935d old 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 53.0 · Tom Smith 46.0	poll arch
11/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	790	±3.5	unknown	4936d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 52.0 · Tom Smith 44.0	poll arch
11/3/2012	Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	2.42	—(R+0.4)	430	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4936d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 2.42 Aggregation weight is 2.42 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 42.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	Tribune-Review/Susquehanna	1.00	—	800	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls4939d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	547	±4.2	unknown	4942d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 36.0	poll arch
10/25/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4945d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4945d old Poll was fielded 4945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 42.0	poll arch
10/24/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4946d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 45.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	760	±3.6	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 52.0 · Tom Smith 42.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Muhlenberg College Poll	1.00	—	444	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4949d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 45.0 · Tom Smith 37.0	poll arch
10/20/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	559	±4.2	unknown	4950d old 4950d old Poll was fielded 4950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Tom Smith 45.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1519	±2.5	unknown	4956d oldn=1,519 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,519 Sample size of 1,519 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 45.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4956d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · Tom Smith 39.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Muhlenberg	1.00	—	438	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4956d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 41.0 · Tom Smith 39.0	poll arch
10/13/2012	Susquehanna Polling	1.00	—	1376	±2.6	unknown	no scored polls4957d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4957d old Poll was fielded 4957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 48.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4961d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 45.0	poll arch
10/8/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4962d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4962d old Poll was fielded 4962 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 38.0	poll arch
10/6/2012	Susquehanna Polling	1.00	—	725	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4964d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4964d old Poll was fielded 4964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 44.0	poll arch
10/5/2012	Siena Poll	1.00	—	545	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls4965d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4965d old Poll was fielded 4965 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 44.0 · Tom Smith 35.0	poll arch
9/26/2012	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	427	±5.0	unknown	4974d oldtracks editorial consensus 4974d old Poll was fielded 4974 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 44.0 · Tom Smith 36.0	poll arch
9/24/2012	Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll	1.00	—	1180	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4976d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4976d old Poll was fielded 4976 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: CBS / NYT Poll Commissioned by CBS / NYT Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 43.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	Franklin & Marshall	1.00	—	392	±4.9	unknown	no scored pollsn=392+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=392 Sample size of 392 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 38.0	poll arch
9/19/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4981d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4981d old Poll was fielded 4981 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 42.0	poll arch
9/16/2012	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	640	±4.0	unknown	4984d oldtracks editorial consensus 4984d old Poll was fielded 4984 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 45.0 · Tom Smith 33.0	poll arch
8/23/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	601	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5008d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5008d old Poll was fielded 5008 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 53.0 · Tom Smith 34.0	poll arch
8/22/2012	MCall/Muhlenberg Poll	1.00	—	422	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls5009d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5009d old Poll was fielded 5009 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 30.0	poll arch
8/12/2012	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	681	±3.8	unknown	5019d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 5019d old Poll was fielded 5019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 35.0 · Tom Smith 23.0	poll arch
7/30/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1168	±2.9	unknown	5032d old 5032d old Poll was fielded 5032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 55.0 · Tom Smith 37.0	poll arch
7/23/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	758	±3.6	unknown	5039d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5039d old Poll was fielded 5039 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0 · Tom Smith 36.0	poll arch
7/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5044d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5044d old Poll was fielded 5044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 38.0	poll arch
7/10/2012	We Ask America	1.00	—	1227	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls5052d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5052d old Poll was fielded 5052 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 53.0 · Tom Smith 39.0	poll arch
6/25/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1252	±2.8	unknown	5067d old 5067d old Poll was fielded 5067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 32.0	poll arch
6/10/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	997	±3.1	unknown	5082d old 5082d old Poll was fielded 5082 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Tom Smith 32.0	poll arch
6/4/2012	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	412	±4.8	unknown	5088d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 5088d old Poll was fielded 5088 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 42.0 · Tom Smith 21.0	poll arch
5/21/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5102d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5102d old Poll was fielded 5102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 41.0	poll arch
5/20/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	671	±3.8	unknown	5103d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5103d old Poll was fielded 5103 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 33.0	poll arch
3/12/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1256	±2.8	unknown	5172d old 5172d old Poll was fielded 5172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 46.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	689	±3.7	unknown	5173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tom Smith 31.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	689	±3.7	unknown	5173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · David Christian 32.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	689	±3.7	unknown	5173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Sam Rohrer 34.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	689	±3.7	unknown	5173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Marc Scaringi 29.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	689	±3.7	unknown	5173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Steve Welch 31.0	poll arch
2/21/2012	Morning Call	1.00	—	625	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5192d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5192d old Poll was fielded 5192 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 40.0	poll arch
2/21/2012	Morning Call	1.00	—	625	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5192d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5192d old Poll was fielded 5192 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 44.0 · Rick Santorum 36.0	poll arch
11/20/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5285d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5285d old Poll was fielded 5285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Tom Smith 32.0	poll arch
11/20/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5285d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5285d old Poll was fielded 5285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Tim Burns 34.0	poll arch
11/20/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5285d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5285d old Poll was fielded 5285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 47.0 · Sam Rohrer 36.0	poll arch
11/20/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5285d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5285d old Poll was fielded 5285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Rick Santorum 39.0	poll arch
11/20/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5285d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5285d old Poll was fielded 5285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 47.0 · Steve Welch 33.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Jake Corman 35.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Laureen Cummings 31.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Jim Gerlach 33.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 47.0 · Tim Murphy 35.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Rick Santorum 39.0	poll arch
7/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5423d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5423d old Poll was fielded 5423 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 47.0 · Marc Scaringi 29.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Jake Corman 35.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Laureen Cummings 32.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Charlie Dent 31.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · Jim Gerlach 32.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Rick Santorum 37.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Marc Scaringi 28.0	poll arch
4/10/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	593	±4.0	unknown	5509d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5509d old Poll was fielded 5509 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · Kim Ward 29.0	poll arch
2/23/2011	Municipoll	1.00	—	670	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls5555d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5555d old Poll was fielded 5555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Charlie Dent 32.0	poll arch
2/23/2011	Municipoll	1.00	—	670	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls5555d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5555d old Poll was fielded 5555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Jim Gerlach 34.0	poll arch
2/23/2011	Municipoll	1.00	—	670	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls5555d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5555d old Poll was fielded 5555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · Rick Santorum 38.0	poll arch
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Charlie Dent 31.0	poll arch
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 49.0 · Jim Gerlach 33.0	poll arch
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 48.0 · Rick Santorum 41.0	poll arch
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 50.0 · Marc Scaringi 27.0	poll arch
1/5/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5604d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5604d old Poll was fielded 5604 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 47.0 · Mark Schweiker 34.0	poll arch
6/21/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	609	±4.0	unknown	5802d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5802d old Poll was fielded 5802 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Casey, Jr. 51.0 · Rick Santorum 39.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/4/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi