Races · Senate · 2012 · OH

Senate · class II · open seat

Sherrod Brown vs Josh Mandel

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Lean R — · 93 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4935d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 93 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 93 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:93 of 93 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2012	Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati	1.00	—	901	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4935d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 47.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	803	±3.5	unknown	4935d oldtracks editorial consensus 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	572	±4.1	unknown	4935d old 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Josh Mandel 46.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4935d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 54.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4935d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 48.0	poll arch
11/3/2012	Columbus Dispatch	1.00	—	1501	±2.2	unknown	no scored polls4936d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,501 Sample size of 1,501 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	971	±3.1	unknown	4938d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0	poll arch
11/1/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4938d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 48.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	Reuters/Ipsos	1.21	neutral(D+0.6)	885	±3.8	unknown	4939d old 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
10/30/2012	University of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll	1.00	—	1182	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls4940d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4940d old Poll was fielded 4940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
10/29/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	603	±4.1	unknown	4941d oldtracks editorial consensus 4941d old Poll was fielded 4941 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	CBS/Quinnipiac University	1.00	—	1110	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4942d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Quinnipiac University Commissioned by Quinnipiac University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	718	±3.7	unknown	4942d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	765	±3.5	unknown	4942d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Josh Mandel 43.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4942d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 48.0	poll arch
10/27/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	730	±3.6	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4943d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4943d old Poll was fielded 4943 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 47.0	poll arch
10/23/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4947d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4947d old Poll was fielded 4947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
10/23/2012	The Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News	1.00	—	1015	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4947d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4947d old Poll was fielded 4947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Ohio News Commissioned by Ohio News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 47.0	poll arch
10/22/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	725	±4.2	unknown	4948d oldtracks editorial consensus 4948d old Poll was fielded 4948 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Suffolk	1.00	—	600	—	unknown	no scored polls4949d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 39.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	810	±3.4	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
10/20/2012	CBS News/Quinnipiac	1.00	—	1548	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4950d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4950d old Poll was fielded 4950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,548 Sample size of 1,548 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
10/20/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	532	±4.3	unknown	4950d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4950d old Poll was fielded 4950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
10/20/2012	Angus Reid Public Opinion	1.15	R(R+2.2)	550	±4.2	unknown	4950d old 4950d old Poll was fielded 4950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0	poll arch
10/17/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4953d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4953d old Poll was fielded 4953 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
10/15/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	613	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4955d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4955d old Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Josh Mandel 38.0	poll arch
10/13/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	4957d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4957d old Poll was fielded 4957 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
10/10/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4960d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4960d old Poll was fielded 4960 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 46.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	994	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4961d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
10/8/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	808	±3.5	unknown	4962d oldtracks editorial consensus 4962d old Poll was fielded 4962 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 42.0 · Josh Mandel 38.0	poll arch
10/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4966d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4966d old Poll was fielded 4966 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 46.0	poll arch
10/1/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	931	±3.2	unknown	4969d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 4969d old Poll was fielded 4969 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
9/24/2012	CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac	1.00	—	1162	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4976d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4976d old Poll was fielded 4976 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times / Quinnipiac Commissioned by The New York Times / Quinnipiac, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	934	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls4977d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
9/22/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	594	±4.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4978d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4978d old Poll was fielded 4978 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 43.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	Ohio Newspaper Organization	1.00	—	861	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4982d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 52.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	FOX NEWS Poll	1.00	—	1009	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4982d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: Fox News Commissioned by Fox News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
9/12/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4988d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4988d old Poll was fielded 4988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
9/11/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	979	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4989d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4989d old Poll was fielded 4989 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
9/9/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1072	±3.0	unknown	4991d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4991d old Poll was fielded 4991 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
9/8/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1548	±2.7	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4992d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4992d old Poll was fielded 4992 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=1,548 Sample size of 1,548 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
8/25/2012	Columbus Dispatch	1.00	—	1758	±2.1	unknown	no scored polls5006d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5006d old Poll was fielded 5006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,758 Sample size of 1,758 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
8/21/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1253	±2.8	unknown	5010d old 5010d old Poll was fielded 5010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 45.0	poll arch
8/21/2012	Ohio Poll	1.00	—	847	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls5010d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5010d old Poll was fielded 5010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 47.0	poll arch
8/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5018d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5018d old Poll was fielded 5018 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 44.0	poll arch
7/30/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1193	±2.8	unknown	5032d old 5032d old Poll was fielded 5032 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 39.0	poll arch
7/24/2012	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	597	±4.0	unknown	5038d old 5038d old Poll was fielded 5038 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Josh Mandel 38.0	poll arch
7/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5044d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5044d old Poll was fielded 5044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
6/25/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1237	±2.8	unknown	5067d old 5067d old Poll was fielded 5067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Josh Mandel 34.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 39.0	poll arch
5/29/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5094d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5094d old Poll was fielded 5094 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 42.0	poll arch
5/20/2012	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	1103	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt5103d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 5103d old Poll was fielded 5103 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Josh Mandel 37.0	poll arch
5/7/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1069	±3.0	unknown	5116d old 5116d old Poll was fielded 5116 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	875	±3.3	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Josh Mandel 37.0	poll arch
4/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5135d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5135d old Poll was fielded 5135 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 41.0	poll arch
3/26/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1246	±2.8	unknown	5158d old 5158d old Poll was fielded 5158 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Josh Mandel 36.0	poll arch
3/26/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5158d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5158d old Poll was fielded 5158 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Josh Mandel 43.0	poll arch
3/2/2012	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	3079	±1.8	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt5182d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 5182d old Poll was fielded 5182 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,079 Sample size of 3,079 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 37.0	poll arch
2/12/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	500	±4.5	unknown	5201d old 5201d old Poll was fielded 5201 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 35.0	poll arch
2/8/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5205d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5205d old Poll was fielded 5205 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
1/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	820	±3.4	unknown	5215d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5215d old Poll was fielded 5215 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 36.0	poll arch
1/16/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1610	±2.4	unknown	5228d oldn=1,610 5228d old Poll was fielded 5228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,610 Sample size of 1,610 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Josh Mandel 32.0	poll arch
11/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1421	±2.6	unknown	5299d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5299d old Poll was fielded 5299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 35.0	poll arch
10/23/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1668	±2.4	unknown	5313d oldn=1,668 5313d old Poll was fielded 5313 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 34.0	poll arch
10/23/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1668	±2.4	unknown	5313d oldn=1,668 5313d old Poll was fielded 5313 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Kevin Coughlin 30.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	581	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 40.0	poll arch
10/16/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	581	±4.1	unknown	5320d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5320d old Poll was fielded 5320 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Kevin Coughlin 37.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1301	±2.7	unknown	5341d old 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 36.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1301	±2.7	unknown	5341d old 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 53.0 · Kevin Coughlin 32.0	poll arch
8/14/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	792	±3.5	unknown	5383d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5383d old Poll was fielded 5383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 33.0	poll arch
8/14/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	792	±3.5	unknown	5383d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5383d old Poll was fielded 5383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Kevin Coughlin 33.0	poll arch
8/14/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	792	±3.5	unknown	5383d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5383d old Poll was fielded 5383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 47.0 · Jim Jordan 35.0	poll arch
8/14/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	792	±3.5	unknown	5383d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5383d old Poll was fielded 5383 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 46.0 · Jim Tressel 34.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1659	±4.1	unknown	5410d oldn=1,659 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,659 Sample size of 1,659 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Josh Mandel 34.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1659	±4.1	unknown	5410d oldn=1,659 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,659 Sample size of 1,659 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Kevin Coughlin 32.0	poll arch
5/22/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	565	±4.1	unknown	5467d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5467d old Poll was fielded 5467 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 31.0	poll arch
5/22/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	565	±4.1	unknown	5467d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5467d old Poll was fielded 5467 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Ken Blackwell 33.0	poll arch
5/22/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	565	±4.1	unknown	5467d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5467d old Poll was fielded 5467 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 51.0 · Kevin Coughlin 30.0	poll arch
5/22/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	565	±4.1	unknown	5467d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5467d old Poll was fielded 5467 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jim Jordan 31.0	poll arch
5/22/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	565	±4.1	unknown	5467d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5467d old Poll was fielded 5467 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 50.0 · Mary Taylor 31.0	poll arch
5/16/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1379	±2.6	unknown	5473d old 5473d old Poll was fielded 5473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 45.0 · Josh Mandel 31.0	poll arch
5/16/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1379	±2.6	unknown	5473d old 5473d old Poll was fielded 5473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Ken Blackwell 35.0	poll arch
5/16/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1379	±2.6	unknown	5473d old 5473d old Poll was fielded 5473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sherrod Brown 44.0 · Kevin Coughlin 28.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Josh Mandel 32.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Drew Carey 34.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jon Husted 34.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Jim Jordan 30.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 48.0 · Steve LaTourette 30.0	poll arch
3/13/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	559	±4.1	unknown	5537d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5537d old Poll was fielded 5537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 49.0 · Mary Taylor 30.0	poll arch
12/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	510	±4.3	unknown	5628d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5628d old Poll was fielded 5628 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Mike DeWine 43.0	poll arch
12/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	510	±4.3	unknown	5628d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5628d old Poll was fielded 5628 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Jon Husted 38.0	poll arch
12/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	510	±4.3	unknown	5628d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5628d old Poll was fielded 5628 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 43.0 · Jim Jordan 35.0	poll arch
12/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	510	±4.3	unknown	5628d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5628d old Poll was fielded 5628 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sherrod Brown 40.0 · Mary Taylor 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/4/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi