Races · Senate · 2012 · NM

Senate · class II · open seat

Martin Heinrich vs Heather Wilson

← NJ Senate NV Senate →

Tilt D — · 37 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4945d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 37 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D

tilt-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 37 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:37 of 37 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/25/2012	Albuquerque Poll Journal	1.00	—	662	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4945d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4945d old Poll was fielded 4945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Heather Wilson 42.0	poll arch
10/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	727	—	unknown	4946d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 52.0 · Heather Wilson 44.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	Albuquerque Poll Journal	1.00	—	658	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4959d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Heather Wilson 39.0	poll arch
10/8/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4962d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4962d old Poll was fielded 4962 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martin Heinrich 52.0 · Heather Wilson 39.0	poll arch
10/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	778	—	unknown	4967d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4967d old Poll was fielded 4967 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 51.0 · Heather Wilson 41.0	poll arch
9/27/2012	We Ask America	1.00	—	1258	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls4973d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4973d old Poll was fielded 4973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 52.0 · Heather Wilson 41.0	poll arch
9/9/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1122	±2.9	unknown	4991d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4991d old Poll was fielded 4991 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Heather Wilson 41.0	poll arch
9/6/2012	Albuquerque Journal	1.00	—	667	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4994d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4994d old Poll was fielded 4994 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Martin Heinrich 49.0 · Heather Wilson 42.0	poll arch
8/21/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5010d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5010d old Poll was fielded 5010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Heather Wilson 41.0	poll arch
7/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	724	±3.6	unknown	5046d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5046d old Poll was fielded 5046 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
4/22/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	526	±4.3	unknown	5131d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5131d old Poll was fielded 5131 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
4/22/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	526	±4.3	unknown	5131d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5131d old Poll was fielded 5131 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 42.0 · Greg Sowards 30.0	poll arch
4/22/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	526	±4.3	unknown	5131d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5131d old Poll was fielded 5131 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 44.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
4/22/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	526	±4.3	unknown	5131d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5131d old Poll was fielded 5131 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 48.0 · Greg Sowards 34.0	poll arch
4/3/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5150d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5150d old Poll was fielded 5150 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martin Heinrich 46.0 · Heather Wilson 42.0	poll arch
4/3/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5150d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5150d old Poll was fielded 5150 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Hector Balderas 42.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
2/14/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5199d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5199d old Poll was fielded 5199 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Martin Heinrich 45.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
2/14/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5199d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5199d old Poll was fielded 5199 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Hector Balderas 44.0 · Heather Wilson 44.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Heather Wilson 40.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 38.0 · Gary Johnson 44.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 44.0 · Greg Sowards 30.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 43.0 · Heather Wilson 43.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 43.0 · Gary Johnson 43.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 49.0 · Greg Sowards 31.0	poll arch
6/26/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	732	±3.6	unknown	5432d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5432d old Poll was fielded 5432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 47.0 · Heather Wilson 42.0	poll arch
6/26/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	732	±3.6	unknown	5432d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5432d old Poll was fielded 5432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 42.0 · Greg Sowards 28.0	poll arch
6/26/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	732	±3.6	unknown	5432d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5432d old Poll was fielded 5432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Hector Balderas 45.0 · Heather Wilson 39.0	poll arch
6/26/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	732	±3.6	unknown	5432d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5432d old Poll was fielded 5432 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 46.0 · Greg Sowards 34.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 50.0 · Heather Wilson 39.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Bingaman 51.0 · Gary Johnson 40.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Bingaman 57.0 · Steve Pearce 34.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Bingaman 56.0 · Heather Wilson 37.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ben Ray Luján 40.0 · Gary Johnson 45.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ben Ray Luján 49.0 · Steve Pearce 37.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ben Ray Luján 48.0 · Heather Wilson 40.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 43.0 · Gary Johnson 44.0	poll arch
2/6/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	545	±4.2	unknown	5572d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5572d old Poll was fielded 5572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Martin Heinrich 53.0 · Steve Pearce 38.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/25/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi