Races · Senate · 2012 · NJ

Senate · class II · open seat

Bob Menendez vs Joseph Kyrillos

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Lean D — · 42 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4945d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 42 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 42 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:42 of 42 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/25/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	601	±4.0	LV	no scored polls4945d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4945d old Poll was fielded 4945 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 50.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 32.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	Stockton	1.00	—	811	±3.5	LV	no scored polls4952d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 52.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 30.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	577	±4.2	LV	4952d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 53.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 33.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1319	±2.7	LV	4956d oldlikely-voter screen 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 55.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 37.0	poll arch
10/8/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	604	±4.0	LV	no scored polls4962d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4962d old Poll was fielded 4962 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 49.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 35.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	613	±2.5	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt4977d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 49.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 34.0	poll arch
9/12/2012	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	706	±2.5	LV	4988d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4988d old Poll was fielded 4988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 50.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 36.0	poll arch
9/12/2012	Philadelphia Inquirer	1.00	—	600	±2.5	LV	no scored polls4988d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4988d old Poll was fielded 4988 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 43.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 32.0	poll arch
9/2/2012	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1471	±2.5	LV	4998d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4998d old Poll was fielded 4998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 50.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 40.0	poll arch
8/25/2012	Rutgers-Eagleton	1.00	—	688	±3.7	LV	no scored polls5006d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5006d old Poll was fielded 5006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Bob Menendez 47.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 35.0	poll arch
7/27/2012	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	849	±2.5	RV	historical bias D+5.0pt5035d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 5035d old Poll was fielded 5035 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 45.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 33.0	poll arch
7/22/2012	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	535	±2.5	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt5040d old+2 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 5040d old Poll was fielded 5040 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Bob Menendez 44.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 35.0	poll arch
7/14/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1623	±2.5	unknown	5048d oldn=1,623 5048d old Poll was fielded 5048 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,623 Sample size of 1,623 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Menendez 47.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 34.0	poll arch
5/14/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1582	±2.5	unknown	5109d oldn=1,582 5109d old Poll was fielded 5109 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,582 Sample size of 1,582 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Menendez 45.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 35.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind	1.00	—	400	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls5117d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Menendez 42.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 33.0	poll arch
4/9/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1607	±2.4	unknown	5144d oldn=1,607 5144d old Poll was fielded 5144 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,607 Sample size of 1,607 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Bob Menendez 44.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 35.0	poll arch
3/11/2012	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	396	±2.6	unknown	no scored pollsn=396+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=396 Sample size of 396 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. 5173d old Poll was fielded 5173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 43.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 33.0	poll arch
2/27/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1396	±2.6	unknown	5186d old 5186d old Poll was fielded 5186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Menendez 49.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 34.0	poll arch
2/26/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	533	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls5187d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5187d old Poll was fielded 5187 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Menendez 46.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 31.0	poll arch
2/26/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	533	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls5187d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5187d old Poll was fielded 5187 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Menendez 48.0 · Anna Little 29.0	poll arch
2/11/2012	Rutgers-Eagleton	1.00	—	914	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls5202d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5202d old Poll was fielded 5202 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Bob Menendez 44.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 22.0	poll arch
1/8/2012	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5236d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5236d old Poll was fielded 5236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 43.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 31.0	poll arch
1/8/2012	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5236d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5236d old Poll was fielded 5236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 43.0 · Anna Little 31.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5341d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 49.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 28.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5341d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 49.0 · Michael Doherty 30.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	480	±4.5	unknown	5410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 48.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 29.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	480	±4.5	unknown	5410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 48.0 · Michael Doherty 35.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	480	±4.5	unknown	5410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 48.0 · Kim Guadagno 34.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	480	±4.5	unknown	5410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 48.0 · Woody Johnson 30.0	poll arch
7/18/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	480	±4.5	unknown	5410d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5410d old Poll was fielded 5410 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 44.0 · Tom Kean Jr. 39.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5600d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 41.0 · Joseph Kyrillos 29.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5600d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 42.0 · Jennifer Beck 29.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	5600d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 47.0 · Lou Dobbs 35.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5600d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 40.0 · Michael Doherty 30.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5600d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 47.0 · Kim Guadagno 26.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	5600d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 45.0 · Kim Guadagno 30.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	802	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5600d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 44.0 · Tom Kean Jr. 34.0	poll arch
1/9/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	5600d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5600d old Poll was fielded 5600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bob Menendez 41.0 · Tom Kean Jr. 39.0	poll arch
3/1/2010	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5914d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5914d old Poll was fielded 5914 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 40.0 · Michael Doherty 27.0	poll arch
3/1/2010	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5914d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5914d old Poll was fielded 5914 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 38.0 · Tom Kean Jr. 39.0	poll arch
2/1/2010	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5942d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5942d old Poll was fielded 5942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 35.0 · Tom Kean Jr. 45.0	poll arch
1/10/2010	Fairleigh Dickinson University	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls5964d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5964d old Poll was fielded 5964 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 6 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Menendez 37.0 · Lou Dobbs 34.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Nov 1	—	+9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/25/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi