Races · Senate · 2012 · ND
Senate · class II · open seat

North Dakota Senate

Safe R · 15 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4934d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 15 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 15 results

15 of 15 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/5/2012Pharos Research0.97neutral(D+0.6)503±4.1unknown
4934d oldbias D+0.6pt+1
  • 4934d old
    Poll was fielded 4934 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.6pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 49.0pollarch
10/28/2012Pharos Research0.97neutral(D+0.6)752±3.6unknown
4942d oldbias D+0.6pt+1
  • 4942d old
    Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.6pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 48.0pollarch
10/28/2012Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt4942d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4942d old
    Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 47.0pollarch
10/24/2012The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)1.00600±4.0unknown
no scored polls4946d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4946d old
    Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 44.0pollarch
10/21/2012Pharos Research0.97neutral(D+0.6)807±3.4unknown
4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1
  • 4949d old
    Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • bias D+0.6pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 48.0pollarch
10/19/2012The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp)1.00600±4.0unknown
no scored polls4951d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4951d old
    Poll was fielded 4951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 42.0pollarch
10/18/2012Rasmussen Reports1.00(R+2.1)600±4.0unknown
bias R+2.1pt4952d old+1
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 4952d old
    Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 50.0pollarch
10/15/2012Essman Research1.00500±4.4unknown
no scored polls4955d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4955d old
    Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 50.0pollarch
10/5/2012Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt4965d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 4965d old
    Poll was fielded 4965 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 47.0pollarch
9/27/2012DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)600±4.0unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3 scored polls+1
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 4973d old
    Poll was fielded 4973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 44.0pollarch
7/26/2012DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)400±4.9unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3 scored polls+1
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 5036d old
    Poll was fielded 5036 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 44.0pollarch
7/11/2012Rasmussen Reports1.00(R+2.1)400±5.0unknown
bias R+2.1pt5051d old+1
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 5051d old
    Poll was fielded 5051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 49.0pollarch
6/6/2012Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt5086d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 5086d old
    Poll was fielded 5086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Rick Berg 46.0pollarch
5/8/2012Essman Research1.00500±4.3unknown
no scored polls5115d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 5115d old
    Poll was fielded 5115 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 51.0pollarch
4/26/2012DFM Research0.65L(D+6.1)478±4.5unknown
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned3 scored polls+1
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 5127d old
    Poll was fielded 5127 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Rick Berg 44.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Nov 1 0.0
Inside Elections Tilt R Nov 2 -1.3
Real Clear Politics Tossup Nov 5 0.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Nov 5 -3.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 164 months ago (11/5/2012) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi