| 11/5/2012 | Pharos Research | 0.97 | neutral(D+0.6) | 503 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡4934d old🔵bias D+0.6pt+1- 🟡
4934d old Poll was fielded 4934 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 49.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2012 | Pharos Research | 0.97 | neutral(D+0.6) | 752 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟡4942d old🔵bias D+0.6pt+1- 🟡
4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2012 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡4942d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 47.0 | pollarch |
| 10/24/2012 | The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4946d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/21/2012 | Pharos Research | 0.97 | neutral(D+0.6) | 807 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡4949d old🔵bias D+0.6pt+1- 🟡
4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2012 | The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4951d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4951d old Poll was fielded 4951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2012 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4952d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 50.0 | pollarch |
| 10/15/2012 | Essman Research | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4955d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4955d old Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 50.0 | pollarch |
| 10/5/2012 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡4965d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
4965d old Poll was fielded 4965 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 47.0 | pollarch |
| 9/27/2012 | DFM Research | 0.65 | L(D+6.1) | 600 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡3 scored polls+1- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
4973d old Poll was fielded 4973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 44.0 | pollarch |
| 7/26/2012 | DFM Research | 0.65 | L(D+6.1) | 400 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡3 scored polls+1- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
5036d old Poll was fielded 5036 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 44.0 | pollarch |
| 7/11/2012 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 400 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡5051d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
5051d old Poll was fielded 5051 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 49.0 | pollarch |
| 6/6/2012 | Mason-Dixon | 0.56 | R(R+2.4) | 625 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.4pt🟡5086d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. - 🟡
5086d old Poll was fielded 5086 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Rick Berg 46.0 | pollarch |
| 5/8/2012 | Essman Research | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.3 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡5115d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
5115d old Poll was fielded 5115 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 51.0 | pollarch |
| 4/26/2012 | DFM Research | 0.65 | L(D+6.1) | 478 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡3 scored polls+1- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
5127d old Poll was fielded 5127 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Rick Berg 44.0 | pollarch |