Races · Senate · 2012 · MT

Senate · class II · open seat

Jon Tester vs Denny Rehberg

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Likely R — · 24 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4936d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 24 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 24 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:24 of 24 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	836	—	unknown	4936d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Denny Rehberg 46.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau	1.00	—	625	—	unknown	no scored polls4939d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Gazette State Bureau Commissioned by Gazette State Bureau, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 49.0	poll arch
10/29/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4941d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4941d old Poll was fielded 4941 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 49.0 · Denny Rehberg 48.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	799	±3.5	unknown	4942d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Pharos Research	0.97	neutral(D+0.6)	828	±3.4	unknown	4949d oldbias D+0.6pt+1 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.6pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.6pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Denny Rehberg 46.0	poll arch
10/16/2012	Public Policy Polling/LCV	1.00	—	806	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4954d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4954d old Poll was fielded 4954 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jon Tester 46.0 · Denny Rehberg 44.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4956d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Denny Rehberg 48.0	poll arch
10/10/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	737	±3.6	unknown	4960d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4960d old Poll was fielded 4960 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 43.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	MSU	1.00	—	477	±4.6	unknown	no scored polls4961d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jon Tester 40.0 · Denny Rehberg 43.0	poll arch
9/19/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt4981d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 4981d old Poll was fielded 4981 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 48.0	poll arch
9/11/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	656	±3.8	unknown	4989d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4989d old Poll was fielded 4989 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 43.0	poll arch
8/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5011d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5011d old Poll was fielded 5011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 43.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
6/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	450	±5.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5074d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5074d old Poll was fielded 5074 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 47.0 · Denny Rehberg 49.0	poll arch
5/2/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	450	±5.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5121d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5121d old Poll was fielded 5121 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 43.0 · Denny Rehberg 53.0	poll arch
4/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	934	±3.2	unknown	5124d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5124d old Poll was fielded 5124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Denny Rehberg 43.0	poll arch
4/2/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5151d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5151d old Poll was fielded 5151 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 44.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
2/22/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5191d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5191d old Poll was fielded 5191 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 44.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
11/30/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1625	±2.4	unknown	5275d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 5275d old Poll was fielded 5275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,625 Sample size of 1,625 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	819	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 45.0 · Denny Rehberg 47.0	poll arch
3/16/2011	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5534d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5534d old Poll was fielded 5534 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Jon Tester 46.0 · Denny Rehberg 45.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1176	±2.9	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 46.0 · Denny Rehberg 48.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1176	±2.9	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 48.0 · Steve Daines 37.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1176	±2.9	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 46.0 · Neil Livingstone 35.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1176	±2.9	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jon Tester 42.0 · Marc Racicot 49.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 5	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/3/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi