Races · house · 2026 · TX

house · open seat

Henry Cuellar vs Tano Tijerina

← TX house TX house →

Lean R R +2.0 · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Last poll 60d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 55% R

lean-r · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +1.6

80% CI: R +19.1 → D +15.9 · win prob 45%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +1.6

80% CI R +19.1 → D +15.9

CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Dec 9	-2.0	+3.5	-5.5
Inside Elections	Tilt D	Aug 28	-2.0	+1.3	-3.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Dec 10	-2.0	+3.5	-5.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 months ago (3/11/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)