Races · Governor · 2018 · OK
Governor · open seat

Drew Edmondson vs Kevin Stitt

Safe R · 13 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 13 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 13 results

13 of 13 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/3/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)338±5.3unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+3
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • n=338
    Sample size of 338 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.3pt — wider than typical.
  • 2745d old
    Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Drew Edmondson 44.0 · Chris Powell 3.0pollarch
10/25/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)447±4.6unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2754d old
    Poll was fielded 2754 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Kevin Stitt 46.0 · Drew Edmondson 42.0 · Chris Powell 4.0pollarch
10/23/2018Magellan Strategies0.94neutral(R+0.3)500±4.4unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2756d old
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 2756d old
    Poll was fielded 2756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kevin Stitt 51.0 · Drew Edmondson 44.0 · Chris Powell 1.0pollarch
9/29/2018Cole Hargrave Snodgrass1.00500±4.3unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2780d old
    Poll was fielded 2780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kevin Stitt 46.0 · Drew Edmondson 40.0 · Chris Powell 4.0pollarch
9/26/2018Right Strategy Group1.00R1058±3.0unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2783d old
    Poll was fielded 2783 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Drew Edmondson 43.0 · Chris Powell 2.0pollarch
9/10/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)407±4.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2799d old
    Poll was fielded 2799 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Kevin Stitt 47.0 · Drew Edmondson 44.0 · Chris Powell 3.0pollarch
8/2/2018Right Strategy Group1.00R737±4.0unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2838d old
    Poll was fielded 2838 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Kevin Stitt 41.0 · Drew Edmondson 42.0pollarch
8/2/2018Right Strategy Group1.00R737±4.0unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2838d old
    Poll was fielded 2838 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Mick Cornett 39.0 · Drew Edmondson 39.0pollarch
7/20/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)404±4.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2851d old
    Poll was fielded 2851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Kevin Stitt 39.0 · Drew Edmondson 40.0pollarch
7/20/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)404±4.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2851d old
    Poll was fielded 2851 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Mick Cornett 43.0 · Drew Edmondson 35.0pollarch
5/23/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)622±3.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2909d old
    Poll was fielded 2909 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Kevin Stitt 25.0 · Drew Edmondson 32.0pollarch
5/23/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)622±3.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2909d old
    Poll was fielded 2909 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Mick Cornett 33.0 · Drew Edmondson 27.0pollarch
5/23/2018SoonerPoll0.36(D+11.3)622±3.9unknown
weight 0.364 scored polls+2
  • weight 0.36
    Aggregation weight is 0.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2909d old
    Poll was fielded 2909 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+10.1pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.1pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
Todd Lamb 33.0 · Drew Edmondson 28.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 10 total
Drew Edmondson (D)
10 endorsements · source
Elected officials (4)
  • David Boren — 21st governor of Oklahoma , former president of University of Oklahoma , former US senator [ 86 ]
  • Eric Garcetti — 42nd mayor of Los Angeles [ 87 ]
  • Scott Inman — minority leader of the Oklahoma House of Representatives and candidate for governor of Oklahoma in 2018 [ 88 ]
  • [ 90 ] — Jay Brown, auto mechanic and candidate for governor of Oklahoma in 2018 [ 90 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Tulsa World — orld , daily newspaper for Tulsa, Oklahoma [ 89 ]
Organizations / unions (2)
  • [ 91 ] — ma Education Association [ 91 ]
  • [ 92 ] — ma Public Employees Association [ 92 ]
Other (3)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 26 0.0
FiveThirtyEight Likely R Nov 5 -9.0
RealClearPolitics Lean R Nov 4 -3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean R Nov 5 -3.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi