| 11/4/2018 | Change Research | 0.61 | L(D+3.7) | 923 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡2744d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Mike DeWine 43.0 · Richard Cordray 48.0 · Travis Irvine 5.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 1.0 | pollarch |
| 11/4/2018 | The Trafalgar Group | 0.89 | R(R+3.4) | 1948 | ±2.2 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟠historical bias R+3.4pt+2- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,948 Sample size of 1,948 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Mike DeWine 42.0 · Richard Cordray 46.0 | pollarch |
| 11/3/2018 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟡2745d old🔵bias D+1.5pt+1- 🟡
2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 44.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2018 | Cygnal | 1.04 | R(D+1.8) | 503 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡2748d old+1- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 43.0 · Richard Cordray 43.0 · Travis Irvine 3.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 2.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2018 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 789 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡2749d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
2749d old Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Mike DeWine 43.0 · Richard Cordray 48.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2018 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 566 | ±4.3 | unknown | 🟡2751d old🔵tracks editorial consensus+1- 🟡
2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Mike DeWine 46.0 · Richard Cordray 49.0 | pollarch |
| 10/27/2018 | Baldwin Wallace University | 0.47 | —(D+8.5) | 1051 | ±3.8 | unknown | 🟠weight 0.47🟡4 scored polls+2- 🟠
weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2752d old Poll was fielded 2752 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 39.0 · Richard Cordray 39.0 · Travis Irvine 4.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 2.0 | pollarch |
| 10/8/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡2771d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2771d old Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 40.0 · Richard Cordray 46.0 · Travis Irvine 2.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 0.0 | pollarch |
| 10/8/2018 | Baldwin Wallace University | 0.47 | —(D+8.5) | 1017 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟠weight 0.47🟡4 scored polls+2- 🟠
weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2771d old Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 40.0 · Richard Cordray 37.0 · Travis Irvine 4.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/4/2018 | University of Akron | 1.00 | — | 1000 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2775d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2775d old Poll was fielded 2775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 37.0 · Richard Cordray 36.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2018 | Ipsos | 1.00 | —(R+1.9) | 1074 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡2788d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2788d old Poll was fielded 2788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 45.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/20/2018 | Triton Polling & Research | 1.00 | R | 1003 | ±3.1 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+1- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 49.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/20/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 564 | ±5.0 | LV | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2789d old+2- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 44.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 · Travis Irvine 3.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 3.0 | pollarch |
| 9/15/2018 | Baldwin Wallace University | 0.47 | —(D+8.5) | 1048 | ±3.6 | unknown | 🟠weight 0.47🟡4 scored polls+2- 🟠
weight 0.47 Aggregation weight is 0.47 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2794d old Poll was fielded 2794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+5.3pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.3pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 42.0 · Richard Cordray 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/11/2018 | Morning Consult | 1.00 | —(D+5.0) | 1592 | ±2.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+5.0pt🟡2798d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
2798d old Poll was fielded 2798 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,592 Sample size of 1,592 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 39.0 · Richard Cordray 38.0 | pollarch |
| 9/4/2018 | Change Research (D-Innovation Ohio) | 1.00 | — | 822 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2805d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2805d old Poll was fielded 2805 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 45.0 · Richard Cordray 43.0 · Travis Irvine 6.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 3.0 | pollarch |
| 7/10/2018 | TRZ Communications (R-WTPC) | 1.00 | — | 1485 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2861d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2861d old Poll was fielded 2861 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 42.0 · Richard Cordray 38.0 | pollarch |
| 6/22/2018 | Marist College | 1.00 | —(D+2.4) | 778 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.4pt🟡2879d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. - 🟡
2879d old Poll was fielded 2879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 46.0 · Richard Cordray 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/12/2018 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1082 | ±3.7 | unknown | 🟡2889d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2889d old Poll was fielded 2889 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 40.0 · Richard Cordray 42.0 | pollarch |
| 6/11/2018 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡2890d old🔵bias D+0.1pt+1- 🟡
2890d old Poll was fielded 2890 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 36.0 · Richard Cordray 43.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 3.0 | pollarch |
| 5/31/2018 | America First Action | 1.00 | R | 400 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+1- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2901d old Poll was fielded 2901 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 45.0 · Richard Cordray 38.0 | pollarch |
| 5/25/2018 | Fallon Research | 1.00 | — | 800 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2907d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2907d old Poll was fielded 2907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 40.0 · Richard Cordray 34.0 · Constance Gadell- Newton 1.0 | pollarch |
| 5/7/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 618 | ±3.9 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2925d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2925d old Poll was fielded 2925 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 39.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 | pollarch |
| 4/26/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 770 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡2936d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2936d old Poll was fielded 2936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 38.0 · Richard Cordray 47.0 | pollarch |
| 3/20/2018 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1408 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡2973d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2973d old Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 47.0 · Richard Cordray 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/20/2018 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 1408 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡2973d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
2973d old Poll was fielded 2973 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike DeWine 51.0 · Dennis Kucinich 38.0 | pollarch |
| 1/23/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 585 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3029d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3029d old Poll was fielded 3029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 45.0 · Richard Cordray 44.0 | pollarch |
| 1/23/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 585 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3029d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3029d old Poll was fielded 3029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 48.0 · Dennis Kucinich 37.0 | pollarch |
| 1/23/2018 | Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party) | 1.00 | — | 585 | ±4.1 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3029d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3029d old Poll was fielded 3029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 47.0 · Connie Pillich 35.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2018 | Fallon Research | 1.00 | — | 801 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3033d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3033d old Poll was fielded 3033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 49.0 · Richard Cordray 28.0 | pollarch |
| 6/12/2017 | Luntz Global | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3254d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3254d old Poll was fielded 3254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Mike DeWine 55.0 · Richard Cordray 31.0 | pollarch |
| 6/12/2017 | Luntz Global | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3254d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3254d old Poll was fielded 3254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jon Husted 47.0 · Richard Cordray 35.0 | pollarch |