Races · Governor · 2018 · GA
Governor · open seat

Stacey Abrams vs Brian Kemp

Tilt R · 35 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2745d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 35 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
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Tilt R

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 35 results

35 of 35 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/3/2018The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)2171±2.1unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2745d old
    Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=2,171
    Sample size of 2,171 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Brian Kemp 52.0 · Stacey Abrams 40.0pollarch
11/2/201820/20 Insight (D-Southern Majority)1.00614±4.0unknown
no scored polls2746d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2746d old
    Poll was fielded 2746 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 46.0 · Stacey Abrams 50.0 · Ted Metz 1.0pollarch
10/31/2018Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)724±3.7unknown
2748d oldtracks editorial consensus+1
  • 2748d old
    Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0 · Ted Metz 1.0pollarch
10/30/2018Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)504±4.4unknown
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned2749d old+1
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 2749d old
    Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 49.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0 · Ted Metz 4.0pollarch
10/30/2018University of Georgia3.10(R+0.0)1091±3.0unknown
3 scored polls2749d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2749d old
    Poll was fielded 2749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • weight 3.10
    Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 47.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
10/29/2018Opinion Savvy1.00623±3.9unknown
no scored polls2750d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2750d old
    Poll was fielded 2750 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
10/22/2018Opinion Savvy1.00824±3.4unknown
no scored polls2757d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2757d old
    Poll was fielded 2757 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0 · Ted Metz 1.0pollarch
10/18/2018Marist College1.00(D+2.4)554±4.8LV
bias D+2.4pt2761d old+2
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 2761d old
    Poll was fielded 2761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 46.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0 · Ted Metz 4.0pollarch
10/11/2018Ipsos1.00(R+1.9)1088±3.4unknown
2768d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2768d old
    Poll was fielded 2768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
10/9/2018University of Georgia3.10(R+0.0)1232±2.8unknown
3 scored polls2770d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2770d old
    Poll was fielded 2770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • weight 3.10
    Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
10/8/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)655±4.9unknown
2771d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2771d old
    Poll was fielded 2771 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0pollarch
10/6/2018Public Policy Polling (D-Georgia Engaged)1.00729±3.0unknown
no scored polls2773d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2773d old
    Poll was fielded 2773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 46.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0pollarch
10/1/2018Landmark Communications1.25L(D+2.4)964±3.2unknown
2778d old
  • 2778d old
    Poll was fielded 2778 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 48.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
9/24/2018SurveyMonkey1.00(D+6.1)1955±3.0unknown
historical bias D+6.1pt2785d old+2
  • historical bias D+6.1pt
    Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 2785d old
    Poll was fielded 2785 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • n=1,955
    Sample size of 1,955 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Brian Kemp 43.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0pollarch
9/20/2018Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)1.00603±4.1unknown
no scored polls2789d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2789d old
    Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 42.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0 · Ted Metz 3.0pollarch
9/4/2018University of Georgia3.10(R+0.0)1020±3.1unknown
3 scored polls2805d old+1
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 2805d old
    Poll was fielded 2805 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • weight 3.10
    Aggregation weight is 3.10 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Brian Kemp 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 45.0 · Ted Metz 2.0pollarch
7/29/2018Gravis Marketing0.72L(D+2.9)650±3.8unknown
bias D+2.9pt2842d old+1
  • bias D+2.9pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt.
  • 2842d old
    Poll was fielded 2842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
Brian Kemp 44.0 · Stacey Abrams 46.0pollarch
7/19/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1199±4.3unknown
2852d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2852d old
    Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 46.0 · Stacey Abrams 44.0pollarch
7/19/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)1199±4.3unknown
2852d oldtracks editorial consensus
  • 2852d old
    Poll was fielded 2852 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Casey Cagle 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0pollarch
5/25/2018Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)1.00601±4.0unknown
no scored polls2907d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2907d old
    Poll was fielded 2907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Brian Kemp 40.0 · Stacey Abrams 49.0pollarch
5/25/2018Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Abrams)1.00601±4.0unknown
no scored polls2907d old
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2907d old
    Poll was fielded 2907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
Casey Cagle 43.0 · Stacey Abrams 48.0pollarch
5/15/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)2339±3.5unknown
2917d oldn=2,339+1
  • 2917d old
    Poll was fielded 2917 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=2,339
    Sample size of 2,339 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Casey Cagle 46.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0pollarch
5/15/2018SurveyUSA1.00(D+1.5)2339±3.5unknown
2917d oldn=2,339+1
  • 2917d old
    Poll was fielded 2917 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • n=2,339
    Sample size of 2,339 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Casey Cagle 45.0 · Stacey Evans 41.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 37.0 · Stacey Abrams 40.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Casey Cagle 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 39.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Clay Tippins 40.0 · Stacey Abrams 41.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Hunter Hill 37.0 · Stacey Abrams 43.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Casey Cagle 47.0 · Stacey Evans 38.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Brian Kemp 42.0 · Stacey Evans 39.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Clay Tippins 41.0 · Stacey Evans 38.0pollarch
2/23/2018Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625±4.0unknown
bias R+2.4pt2998d old+1
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2998d old
    Poll was fielded 2998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Hunter Hill 35.0 · Stacey Evans 36.0pollarch
5/30/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)724±3.6unknown
3632d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3632d old
    Poll was fielded 3632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Casey Cagle 40.0 · Jason Carter 39.0pollarch
5/30/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)724±3.6unknown
3632d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3632d old
    Poll was fielded 3632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Casey Cagle 46.0 · Kasim Reed 33.0pollarch
5/30/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)724±3.6unknown
3632d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3632d old
    Poll was fielded 3632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Brian Kemp 38.0 · Jason Carter 40.0pollarch
5/30/2016Public Policy Polling1.00(D+1.1)724±3.6unknown
3632d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1
  • 3632d old
    Poll was fielded 3632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Brian Kemp 43.0 · Kasim Reed 33.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 26 0.0
FiveThirtyEight Lean R Nov 5 -3.5
RealClearPolitics Tossup Nov 4 0.0
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup Nov 5 0.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (11/3/2018) last market quote rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi