Races · Governor · 2016 · WV

Governor · open seat

Jim Justice vs Bill Cole

← WA Governor

Safe R — · 37 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 37 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Safe R

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 37 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:37 of 37 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	472	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 36.0 · Bill Cole 45.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	443	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 37.0 · Bill Cole 43.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	386	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1ptn=386+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=386 Sample size of 386 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 40.0 · Bill Cole 42.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	330	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1ptn=330+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=330 Sample size of 330 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 39.0 · Bill Cole 44.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	318	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1ptn=318+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=318 Sample size of 318 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 42.0 · Bill Cole 41.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	321	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1ptn=321+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. n=321 Sample size of 321 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.5pt — wider than typical. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Jim Justice 42.0 · Bill Cole 43.0	poll arch
10/17/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	408	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3492d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3492d old Poll was fielded 3492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 44.0 · Bill Cole 33.0 · David Moran 5.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	—	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3496d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Jim Justice 44.0 · Bill Cole 34.0 · David Moran 2.0	poll arch
10/10/2016	NMB Research	1.00	—	—	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3499d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3499d old Poll was fielded 3499 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n unknown Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.	Jim Justice 39.0 · Bill Cole 39.0 · David Moran 2.0	poll arch
9/17/2016	Garin-Hart-Yang	1.00	—	500	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls3522d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3522d old Poll was fielded 3522 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 46.0 · Bill Cole 33.0 · David Moran 4.0	poll arch
9/10/2016	Just Win Strategies →	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3529d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3529d old Poll was fielded 3529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 44.0 · Bill Cole 42.0 · David Moran 2.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	R.L. Repass & Partners/MetroNews	1.00	—	435	±4.7	unknown	no scored polls3542d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 46.0 · Bill Cole 32.0 · David Moran 5.0	poll arch
8/3/2016	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	419	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3567d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3567d old Poll was fielded 3567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Jim Justice 47.0 · Bill Cole 37.0	poll arch
5/2/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	596	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3660d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3660d old Poll was fielded 3660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 52.0 · Bill Cole 34.0	poll arch
5/2/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	596	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3660d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3660d old Poll was fielded 3660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 47.0 · Bill Cole 39.0	poll arch
5/2/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	596	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3660d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3660d old Poll was fielded 3660 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 45.0 · Bill Cole 39.0	poll arch
5/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1201	±2.8	unknown	3661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3661d old Poll was fielded 3661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Justice 41.0 · Bill Cole 35.0	poll arch
5/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1201	±2.8	unknown	3661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3661d old Poll was fielded 3661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Booth Goodwin 33.0 · Bill Cole 39.0	poll arch
5/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1201	±2.8	unknown	3661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3661d old Poll was fielded 3661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jeff Kessler 30.0 · Bill Cole 40.0	poll arch
2/21/2016	Orion Strategies	1.00	—	306	±5.6	unknown	no scored pollsn=306+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=306 Sample size of 306 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. 3731d old Poll was fielded 3731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 37.0 · Bill Cole 33.0	poll arch
2/21/2016	Orion Strategies	1.00	—	306	±5.6	unknown	no scored pollsn=306+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=306 Sample size of 306 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. 3731d old Poll was fielded 3731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 33.0 · Bill Cole 36.0	poll arch
2/21/2016	Orion Strategies	1.00	—	306	±5.6	unknown	no scored pollsn=306+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=306 Sample size of 306 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.6pt — wider than typical. 3731d old Poll was fielded 3731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 30.0 · Bill Cole 40.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	411	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 49.0 · Bill Cole 39.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	411	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 43.0 · Bill Cole 44.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	MetroNews	1.00	—	411	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 40.0 · Bill Cole 45.0	poll arch
8/25/2015	Orion Strategies	1.00	—	406	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3911d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3911d old Poll was fielded 3911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Justice 34.0 · Bill Cole 31.0	poll arch
8/25/2015	Orion Strategies	1.00	—	406	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls3911d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3911d old Poll was fielded 3911 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 26.0 · Bill Cole 37.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 35.0 · David McKinley 40.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 36.0 · Patrick Morrisey 36.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Booth Goodwin 35.0 · Bill Cole 37.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 32.0 · David McKinley 42.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 35.0 · Patrick Morrisey 38.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jeff Kessler 34.0 · Bill Cole 38.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Joe Manchin 54.0 · Bill Cole 32.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Joe Manchin 52.0 · David McKinley 35.0	poll arch
4/11/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	702	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4047d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4047d old Poll was fielded 4047 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Joe Manchin 58.0 · Patrick Morrisey 29.0	poll arch
3/18/2015	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4071d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4071d old Poll was fielded 4071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Joe Manchin 60.0 · Patrick Morrisey 30.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Aug 12	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean R	Nov 1	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi