| 11/7/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 1451 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3471d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 55.0 · Bill Bryant 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2016 | Insights West | 1.66 | —(D+1.1) | 402 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3472d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 49.0 · Bill Bryant 40.0 | pollarch |
| 11/6/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 1292 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3472d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 55.0 · Bill Bryant 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/3/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 944 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3475d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 56.0 · Bill Bryant 41.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2016 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 667 | ±3.9 | unknown | 🟡3476d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Jay Inslee 50.0 · Bill Bryant 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 807 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3476d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 56.0 · Bill Bryant 41.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 698 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3477d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 55.0 · Bill Bryant 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/31/2016 | SurveyMonkey | 1.00 | —(D+6.1) | 745 | ±4.6 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+6.1pt🟡3478d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
| Jay Inslee 55.0 · Bill Bryant 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/22/2016 | Elway Poll | 0.84 | —(D+1.4) | 502 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3487d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3487d old Poll was fielded 3487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 51.0 · Bill Bryant 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2016 | KCTS 9/YouGov | 1.00 | — | 750 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3496d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 51.0 · Bill Bryant 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/3/2016 | Strategies 360/KOMO News | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.4 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3506d old+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3506d old Poll was fielded 3506 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: KOMO News Commissioned by KOMO News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Jay Inslee 50.0 · Bill Bryant 40.0 | pollarch |
| 8/13/2016 | Elway Poll | 0.84 | —(D+1.4) | 500 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3557d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3557d old Poll was fielded 3557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 48.0 · Bill Bryant 36.0 | pollarch |
| 5/18/2016 | Moore Information ^ | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3644d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3644d old Poll was fielded 3644 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 43.0 · Bill Bryant 36.0 | pollarch |
| 5/18/2016 | Moore Information ^ | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡3644d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
3644d old Poll was fielded 3644 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 38.0 | pollarch |
| 4/17/2016 | Elway Poll | 0.84 | —(D+1.4) | 503 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3675d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 48.0 · Bill Bryant 36.0 | pollarch |
| 12/30/2015 | Elway Poll | 0.84 | —(D+1.4) | 500 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3784d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3784d old Poll was fielded 3784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 39.0 · Bill Bryant 30.0 | pollarch |
| 12/30/2015 | Elway Poll | 0.84 | —(D+1.4) | 500 | ±4.5 | unknown | 🟡3 scored polls🟡3784d old- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
3784d old Poll was fielded 3784 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Jay Inslee 30.0 | pollarch |
| 5/17/2015 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 879 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡4011d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Jay Inslee 46.0 · Bill Bryant 34.0 | pollarch |
| 5/17/2015 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 879 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡4011d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Jay Inslee 45.0 · Andy Hill 31.0 | pollarch |
| 5/17/2015 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 879 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡4011d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Jay Inslee 43.0 · Rob McKenna 38.0 | pollarch |
| 5/17/2015 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 879 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡4011d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Jay Inslee 45.0 · Dave Reichert 34.0 | pollarch |