Races · Governor · 2014 · AZ

Governor · open seat

Fred DuVal vs Doug Ducey

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Tilt R — · 28 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4217d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 28 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 28 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:28 of 28 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2621	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,621 Sample size of 2,621 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 50.0 · Fred DuVal 40.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	The Polling Company	1.00	—	601	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4218d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 42.0 · Fred DuVal 35.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1056	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4224d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 47.0 · Fred DuVal 42.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	Tarrance Group	1.61	—(D+0.9)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls4224d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 43.0 · Fred DuVal 36.0	poll arch
10/14/2014	McLaughlin & Associates	1.00	—	500	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls4226d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4226d old Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Doug Ducey 37.0 · Fred DuVal 36.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	Adrian Gray Consulting	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4231d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 43.0 · Fred DuVal 35.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	Moore Information ^	1.00	—	400	—	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 36.0 · Fred DuVal 39.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	The Polling Company	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 46.0 · Fred DuVal 37.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2808	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,808 Sample size of 2,808 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 50.0 · Fred DuVal 39.0	poll arch
9/19/2014	Keating Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4251d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4251d old Poll was fielded 4251 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 41.0 · Fred DuVal 39.0	poll arch
9/17/2014	Tarrance Group	1.61	—(D+0.9)	505	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls4253d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4253d old Poll was fielded 4253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 44.0 · Fred DuVal 38.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3289	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,289 Sample size of 3,289 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 39.0 · Fred DuVal 38.0	poll arch
8/28/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	850	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4273d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4273d old Poll was fielded 4273 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Doug Ducey 40.0 · Fred DuVal 40.0	poll arch
8/25/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	588	±4.0	unknown	4276d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4276d old Poll was fielded 4276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Doug Ducey 35.0 · Fred DuVal 35.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3778	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,778 Sample size of 3,778 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Christine Jones 45.0 · Fred DuVal 34.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Doug Ducey 35.0 · Fred DuVal 36.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ken Bennett 37.0 · Fred DuVal 33.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Christine Jones 33.0 · Fred DuVal 37.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Al Melvin 32.0 · Fred DuVal 37.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Molina 32.0 · Fred DuVal 35.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Frank Riggs 32.0 · Fred DuVal 36.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Scott Smith 39.0 · Fred DuVal 33.0	poll arch
3/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	870	±3.3	unknown	4452d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Andrew Thomas 35.0 · Fred DuVal 40.0	poll arch
1/26/2014	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	701	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4487d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4487d old Poll was fielded 4487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 21.0 · Fred DuVal 23.0	poll arch
1/26/2014	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	701	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4487d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4487d old Poll was fielded 4487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ken Bennett 26.0 · Fred DuVal 22.0	poll arch
1/26/2014	Behavior Research Center	1.00	—	701	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4487d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4487d old Poll was fielded 4487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Scott Smith 20.0 · Fred DuVal 23.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Susquehanna	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4540d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Doug Ducey 36.0 · Fred DuVal 33.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Susquehanna	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4540d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ken Bennett 38.0 · Fred DuVal 33.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 141 months ago (10/23/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi