Races · Governor · 2014 · AR

Governor · open seat

Mike Ross vs Asa Hutchinson

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Safe R — · 45 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4208d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 45 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 45 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:45 of 45 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/1/2014	Opinion Research Associates	1.00	—	400	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4208d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4208d old Poll was fielded 4208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 43.0 · Asa Hutchinson 39.0	poll arch
11/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1092	±3.0	unknown	4208d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4208d old Poll was fielded 4208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 41.0 · Asa Hutchinson 51.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	967	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4211d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 43.0 · Asa Hutchinson 50.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Issues & Answers Network	1.00	—	568	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls4213d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 39.0 · Asa Hutchinson 50.0	poll arch
10/26/2014	Opinion Research Associates	1.00	—	401	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4214d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4214d old Poll was fielded 4214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 42.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1567	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,567 Sample size of 1,567 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 47.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	621	±3.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4217d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 47.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	Hendrix Poll	1.00	—	2075	±2.2	unknown	no scored polls4224d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,075 Sample size of 2,075 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Mike Ross 41.0 · Asa Hutchinson 49.0	poll arch
10/15/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	940	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4225d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4225d old Poll was fielded 4225 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 47.0 · Asa Hutchinson 49.0	poll arch
10/7/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	707	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4233d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 37.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	Opinion Research Associates	1.00	—	400	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4235d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 45.0 · Asa Hutchinson 41.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1991	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,991 Sample size of 1,991 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 49.0	poll arch
9/25/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4245d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4245d old Poll was fielded 4245 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 42.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
9/23/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4247d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4247d old Poll was fielded 4247 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 41.0 · Asa Hutchinson 43.0	poll arch
9/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1453	±2.6	unknown	4249d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4249d old Poll was fielded 4249 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 44.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	902	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4259d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mike Ross 42.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
9/9/2014	Answers Unlimited	1.00	—	600	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4261d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4261d old Poll was fielded 4261 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 44.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	639	±3.9	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4266d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 39.0 · Asa Hutchinson 48.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1572	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,572 Sample size of 1,572 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 45.0	poll arch
8/26/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4275d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4275d old Poll was fielded 4275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 46.0 · Asa Hutchinson 44.0	poll arch
8/14/2014	Opinion Research Associates	1.00	—	414	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4287d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4287d old Poll was fielded 4287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 44.0	poll arch
8/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1066	±3.0	unknown	4298d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4298d old Poll was fielded 4298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 43.0	poll arch
7/25/2014	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	1780	±2.3	unknown	no scored polls4307d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4307d old Poll was fielded 4307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. n=1,780 Sample size of 1,780 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Mike Ross 41.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1616	±3.5	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,616 Sample size of 1,616 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 45.0 · Asa Hutchinson 48.0	poll arch
7/8/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	987	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4324d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4324d old Poll was fielded 4324 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Mike Ross 46.0 · Asa Hutchinson 49.0	poll arch
5/29/2014	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4364d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4364d old Poll was fielded 4364 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 42.0 · Asa Hutchinson 48.0	poll arch
5/28/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4365d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4365d old Poll was fielded 4365 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 41.0 · Asa Hutchinson 48.0	poll arch
5/4/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	876	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4389d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4389d old Poll was fielded 4389 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 42.0 · Asa Hutchinson 49.0	poll arch
4/27/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	840	±3.4	unknown	4396d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4396d old Poll was fielded 4396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
4/27/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	840	±3.4	unknown	4396d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4396d old Poll was fielded 4396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 43.0 · Curtis Coleman 33.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	New York Times/Kaiser Family	1.00	—	857	—	unknown	no scored polls4408d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 40.0 · Asa Hutchinson 41.0	poll arch
4/8/2014	Opinion Research Associates	1.00	—	400	±5.0	unknown	no scored polls4415d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4415d old Poll was fielded 4415 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 45.0 · Asa Hutchinson 39.0	poll arch
4/4/2014	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	1068	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4419d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4419d old Poll was fielded 4419 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 43.0	poll arch
4/4/2014	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	1068	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4419d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4419d old Poll was fielded 4419 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Lynette Bryant 27.5 · Asa Hutchinson 48.0	poll arch
4/4/2014	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	1068	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4419d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4419d old Poll was fielded 4419 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mike Ross 48.0 · Curtis Coleman 30.0	poll arch
2/10/2014	Impact Management Group	1.00	—	1202	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls4472d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4472d old Poll was fielded 4472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 42.0 · Asa Hutchinson 42.0	poll arch
2/5/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4477d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4477d old Poll was fielded 4477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mike Ross 44.0 · Asa Hutchinson 41.0	poll arch
12/15/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1004	±3.1	unknown	4529d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4529d old Poll was fielded 4529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Ross 43.0 · Asa Hutchinson 44.0	poll arch
10/24/2013	Impact Management Group	1.00	—	911	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4581d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4581d old Poll was fielded 4581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 37.0 · Asa Hutchinson 40.0	poll arch
10/17/2013	University of Arkansas	0.63	—(D+6.3)	800	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls4588d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4588d old Poll was fielded 4588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 30.0 · Asa Hutchinson 32.0	poll arch
10/8/2013	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	603	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4597d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4597d old Poll was fielded 4597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mike Ross 37.0 · Asa Hutchinson 41.0	poll arch
8/5/2013	Harper Polling	1.00	—	587	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4661d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4661d old Poll was fielded 4661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch
2/20/2013	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	675	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4827d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4827d old Poll was fielded 4827 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mike Ross 38.0 · Asa Hutchinson 43.0	poll arch
2/20/2013	Talk Business/Hendrix College	1.00	—	675	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4827d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4827d old Poll was fielded 4827 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Hendrix College Commissioned by Hendrix College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Bill Halter 31.0 · Asa Hutchinson 47.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Dustin McDaniel 33.0 · Asa Hutchinson 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Inside Elections	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/1/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi