Races · Governor · 2012 · WV

Governor · open seat

Earl Ray Tomblin vs Bill Maloney

← WA Governor

Safe R — · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 5006d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R

safe-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 2 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:2 of 2 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
8/25/2012	R.L. Repass	1.00	—	401	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls5006d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5006d old Poll was fielded 5006 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Earl Ray Tomblin 56.0 · Bill Maloney 35.0	poll arch
4/28/2012	R.L. Repass	1.00	—	410	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls5125d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5125d old Poll was fielded 5125 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Earl Ray Tomblin 60.0 · Bill Maloney 32.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 167 months ago (8/25/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Safe R via pvi