Races · Governor · 2012 · WA
Governor · open seat
Jay Inslee vs Rob McKenna
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely D
likely-d
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | Nov 1 | — | 0.0 | — |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | Nov 5 | — | 0.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Nov 5 | — | +3.5 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll 165 months ago (11/3/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi