Races · Senate · 2016 · WA

Senate · class II · open seat

Patty Murray vs Chris Vance

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Likely D — · 20 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 20 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 20 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:20 of 20 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1451	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 59.0 · Chris Vance 37.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	402	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls3472d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 53.0 · Chris Vance 37.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1292	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 59.0 · Chris Vance 37.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	944	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 61.0 · Chris Vance 36.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	667	±3.9	unknown	3476d oldtracks editorial consensus 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Patty Murray 53.0 · Chris Vance 41.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	807	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 61.0 · Chris Vance 36.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	698	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 61.0 · Chris Vance 36.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	745	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Patty Murray 61.0 · Chris Vance 36.0	poll arch
10/22/2016	Elway Poll	0.84	—(D+1.4)	502	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3487d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3487d old Poll was fielded 3487 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 58.0 · Chris Vance 34.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	KCTS 9/YouGov	1.00	—	750	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3496d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 55.0 · Chris Vance 39.0	poll arch
10/3/2016	Strategies 360/KOMO News	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3506d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3506d old Poll was fielded 3506 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: KOMO News Commissioned by KOMO News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Patty Murray 57.0 · Chris Vance 36.0	poll arch
9/26/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	700	±3.6	unknown	3513d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3513d old Poll was fielded 3513 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Patty Murray 48.0 · Chris Vance 41.0	poll arch
9/14/2016	Insights West	1.66	—(D+1.1)	505	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3525d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3525d old Poll was fielded 3525 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 46.0 · Chris Vance 25.0	poll arch
8/13/2016	Elway Poll	0.84	—(D+1.4)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3557d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3557d old Poll was fielded 3557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 52.0 · Chris Vance 34.0	poll arch
4/17/2016	Elway Poll	0.84	—(D+1.4)	503	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls3675d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3675d old Poll was fielded 3675 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 50.0 · Chris Vance 32.0	poll arch
10/15/2015	Elway Poll	0.84	—(D+1.4)	500	±4.5	unknown	3 scored polls3860d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3860d old Poll was fielded 3860 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Patty Murray 44.0 · Chris Vance 23.0	poll arch
5/17/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	4011d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Patty Murray 46.0 · Rob McKenna 41.0	poll arch
5/17/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	4011d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Patty Murray 48.0 · Dave Reichert 37.0	poll arch
5/17/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	4011d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Patty Murray 47.0 · Jaime Herrera Beutler 37.0	poll arch
5/17/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	879	±3.3	unknown	4011d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4011d old Poll was fielded 4011 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Patty Murray 48.0 · Cathy McMorris Rodgers 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 2	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe D	Nov 7	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 7	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi