Races · Senate · 2012 · WA

Senate · class II · open seat

Maria Cantwell vs Michael Baumgartner

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Likely D — · 23 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4936d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 23 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 23 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:23 of 23 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	932	±3.2	unknown	4936d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4936d old Poll was fielded 4936 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 57.0 · Michael Baumgartner 39.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	KCTS 9/Washington Poll	1.65	—(D+2.3)	632	±3.9	unknown	3 scored polls4939d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 61.0 · Michael Baumgartner 33.0	poll arch
10/16/2012	The Washington Poll	1.00	—	782	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4954d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4954d old Poll was fielded 4954 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 58.0 · Michael Baumgartner 35.0	poll arch
10/14/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4956d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4956d old Poll was fielded 4956 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maria Cantwell 52.0 · Michael Baumgartner 37.0	poll arch
9/30/2012	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	540	±4.3	unknown	4970d oldtracks editorial consensus 4970d old Poll was fielded 4970 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maria Cantwell 53.0 · Michael Baumgartner 40.0	poll arch
9/26/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4974d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4974d old Poll was fielded 4974 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maria Cantwell 57.0 · Michael Baumgartner 37.0	poll arch
9/9/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	524	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4991d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4991d old Poll was fielded 4991 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 54.0 · Michael Baumgartner 38.0	poll arch
7/17/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	630	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5045d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5045d old Poll was fielded 5045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 51.0 · Michael Baumgartner 40.0	poll arch
6/17/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1073	±3.0	unknown	5075d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5075d old Poll was fielded 5075 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 51.0 · Michael Baumgartner 35.0	poll arch
2/19/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1264	±2.8	unknown	5194d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5194d old Poll was fielded 5194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 51.0 · Michael Baumgartner 36.0	poll arch
2/19/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1264	±2.8	unknown	5194d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5194d old Poll was fielded 5194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 50.0 · Bill Bryant 36.0	poll arch
2/19/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1264	±2.8	unknown	5194d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5194d old Poll was fielded 5194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 53.0 · Dino Rossi 41.0	poll arch
1/16/2012	Survey USA	1.00	—	617	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5228d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5228d old Poll was fielded 5228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 50.0 · Michael Baumgartner 41.0	poll arch
11/23/2011	Survey USA	1.00	—	549	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls5282d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5282d old Poll was fielded 5282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 51.0 · Michael Baumgartner 39.0	poll arch
11/23/2011	Survey USA	1.00	—	549	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls5282d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5282d old Poll was fielded 5282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 48.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0	poll arch
11/23/2011	Survey USA	1.00	—	549	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls5282d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5282d old Poll was fielded 5282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Maria Cantwell 49.0 · Susan Hutchison 38.0	poll arch
5/15/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1098	±3.0	unknown	5474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5474d old Poll was fielded 5474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 50.0 · Cathy M. Rodgers 31.0	poll arch
5/15/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1098	±3.0	unknown	5474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5474d old Poll was fielded 5474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 49.0 · Dave Reichert 35.0	poll arch
5/15/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1098	±3.0	unknown	5474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5474d old Poll was fielded 5474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 51.0 · Clint Didier 35.0	poll arch
5/15/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1098	±3.0	unknown	5474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5474d old Poll was fielded 5474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 49.0 · Susan Hutchison 35.0	poll arch
5/15/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1098	±3.0	unknown	5474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5474d old Poll was fielded 5474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 53.0 · Dino Rossi 40.0	poll arch
8/1/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1204	±2.8	unknown	5761d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5761d old Poll was fielded 5761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 49.0 · Cathy M. Rodgers 37.0	poll arch
8/1/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1204	±2.8	unknown	5761d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5761d old Poll was fielded 5761 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Maria Cantwell 47.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 5	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/3/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi