Races · Senate · 2012 · VA

Senate · class II · open seat

Tim Kaine vs George Allen

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Tossup — · 89 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4935d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 89 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 89 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:89 of 89 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	975	±3.1	unknown	4935d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 52.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
11/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4935d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4935d old Poll was fielded 4935 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
11/2/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	1165	±2.9	unknown	4937d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 4937d old Poll was fielded 4937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
11/1/2012	WeAskAmerica	0.59	—(R+6.7)	1069	±3.0	unknown	3 scored polls4938d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4938d old Poll was fielded 4938 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 50.0 · George Allen 50.0	poll arch
10/31/2012	Reuters/Ipsos	1.21	neutral(D+0.6)	703	±4.2	unknown	4939d old 4939d old Poll was fielded 4939 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2012	CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac	1.00	—	1074	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4942d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4942d old Poll was fielded 4942 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times / Quinnipiac Commissioned by The New York Times / Quinnipiac, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 50.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
10/26/2012	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	1228	±3.5	unknown	4 scored polls4944d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4944d old Poll was fielded 4944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Tim Kaine 51.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
10/26/2012	Roanoke College	1.00	—(R+1.6)	638	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4944d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4944d old Poll was fielded 4944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 42.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
10/26/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	645	±3.9	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4944d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4944d old Poll was fielded 4944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
10/24/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4946d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4946d old Poll was fielded 4946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
10/18/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4952d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4952d old Poll was fielded 4952 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
10/17/2012	Old Dominion University	1.00	—	465	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls4953d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4953d old Poll was fielded 4953 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 50.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4959d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 48.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac	1.00	—	1288	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4961d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times / Quinnipiac Commissioned by The New York Times / Quinnipiac, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 51.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	We Ask America	1.00	—	1296	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls4961d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 41.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
10/9/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	981	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4961d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4961d old Poll was fielded 4961 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
10/7/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	725	±3.6	unknown	4963d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4963d old Poll was fielded 4963 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 51.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
10/4/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4966d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4966d old Poll was fielded 4966 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 52.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
10/1/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	969	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4969d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4969d old Poll was fielded 4969 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
9/26/2012	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	4974d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4974d old Poll was fielded 4974 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
9/20/2012	Huffpost Politics	1.00	—	1000	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4980d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4980d old Poll was fielded 4980 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
9/18/2012	FOX NEWS Poll	1.00	—	1006	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4982d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4982d old Poll was fielded 4982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. TV-network-sponsored: Fox News Commissioned by Fox News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
9/17/2012	CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac	1.00	—	1485	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4983d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4983d old Poll was fielded 4983 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times / Quinnipiac Commissioned by The New York Times / Quinnipiac, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 51.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
9/17/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	2238	±2.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4983d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4983d old Poll was fielded 4983 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=2,238 Sample size of 2,238 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tim Kaine 43.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
9/16/2012	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	847	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls4984d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4984d old Poll was fielded 4984 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Tim Kaine 51.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
9/16/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1021	±3.1	unknown	4984d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4984d old Poll was fielded 4984 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
9/13/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4987d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4987d old Poll was fielded 4987 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
9/11/2012	NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll	1.00	—	996	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4989d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4989d old Poll was fielded 4989 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
9/9/2012	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	2238	±2.2	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4991d old+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4991d old Poll was fielded 4991 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. n=2,238 Sample size of 2,238 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tim Kaine 43.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
8/23/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5008d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5008d old Poll was fielded 5008 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 45.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
8/19/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	855	±3.4	unknown	5012d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5012d old Poll was fielded 5012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
8/7/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5024d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5024d old Poll was fielded 5024 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
8/6/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1412	±2.6	unknown	5025d old 5025d old Poll was fielded 5025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 48.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
7/17/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5045d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5045d old Poll was fielded 5045 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
7/16/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1673	±2.4	unknown	5046d oldn=1,673 5046d old Poll was fielded 5046 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,673 Sample size of 1,673 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
7/8/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	647	±3.9	unknown	5054d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5054d old Poll was fielded 5054 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
6/25/2012	We Ask America	1.00	—	1106	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls5067d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5067d old Poll was fielded 5067 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 35.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
6/4/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1282	±2.7	unknown	5088d old 5088d old Poll was fielded 5088 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5089d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
5/20/2012	Marist	1.00	—	1076	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls5103d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5103d old Poll was fielded 5103 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
5/2/2012	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	964	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls5121d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 5121d old Poll was fielded 5121 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
4/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	680	±3.8	unknown	5124d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5124d old Poll was fielded 5124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
4/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	680	±3.8	unknown	5124d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5124d old Poll was fielded 5124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · Bob Marshall 36.0	poll arch
4/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	680	±3.8	unknown	5124d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5124d old Poll was fielded 5124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 50.0 · Jamie Radtke 35.0	poll arch
4/23/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5130d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5130d old Poll was fielded 5130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 45.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
4/5/2012	Roanoke College	1.00	—(R+1.6)	537	±4.2	unknown	3 scored polls5148d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 5148d old Poll was fielded 5148 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 39.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
3/20/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5164d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5164d old Poll was fielded 5164 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
3/18/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1034	±3.1	unknown	5166d old 5166d old Poll was fielded 5166 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
3/2/2012	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	2518	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt5182d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 5182d old Poll was fielded 5182 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,518 Sample size of 2,518 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 48.0 · George Allen 39.0	poll arch
2/26/2012	Roanoke College	1.00	—(R+1.6)	607	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls5187d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 5187d old Poll was fielded 5187 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 37.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
2/21/2012	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5192d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5192d old Poll was fielded 5192 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	CNU/Times-Dispatch	1.00	—	1018	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls5200d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Times-Dispatch Commissioned by Times-Dispatch, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 40.0 · George Allen 42.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	CNU/Times-Dispatch	1.00	—	1018	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls5200d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Times-Dispatch Commissioned by Times-Dispatch, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 39.0 · Bob Marshall 28.0	poll arch
2/13/2012	CNU/Times-Dispatch	1.00	—	1018	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls5200d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5200d old Poll was fielded 5200 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Times-Dispatch Commissioned by Times-Dispatch, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 40.0 · Jamie Radtke 26.0	poll arch
2/6/2012	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1544	±2.5	unknown	5207d oldn=1,544 5207d old Poll was fielded 5207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,544 Sample size of 1,544 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tim Kaine 45.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
1/18/2012	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±3.9	unknown	bias R+2.4pt5226d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 5226d old Poll was fielded 5226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
12/19/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1135	±2.9	unknown	5256d old 5256d old Poll was fielded 5256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 42.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 42.0	poll arch
12/12/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	5263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5263d old Poll was fielded 5263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · Jamie Radtke 33.0	poll arch
10/9/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1459	±2.6	unknown	5327d old 5327d old Poll was fielded 5327 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 45.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
10/8/2011	CNU/Times-Dispatch	1.00	—	1027	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls5328d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5328d old Poll was fielded 5328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Times-Dispatch Commissioned by Times-Dispatch, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 42.0	poll arch
10/8/2011	CNU/Times-Dispatch	1.00	—	1027	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls5328d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5328d old Poll was fielded 5328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: Times-Dispatch Commissioned by Times-Dispatch, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · Jamie Radtke 32.0	poll arch
9/28/2011	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt5338d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 5338d old Poll was fielded 5338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
9/12/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1368	±4.0	unknown	5354d old 5354d old Poll was fielded 5354 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 44.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
7/24/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5404d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5404d old Poll was fielded 5404 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 43.0	poll arch
7/24/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	5404d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5404d old Poll was fielded 5404 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · Jamie Radtke 31.0	poll arch
6/27/2011	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1434	±2.6	unknown	5431d old 5431d old Poll was fielded 5431 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tim Kaine 43.0 · George Allen 42.0	poll arch
5/8/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5481d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5481d old Poll was fielded 5481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
5/8/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5481d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5481d old Poll was fielded 5481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · Jamie Radtke 33.0	poll arch
5/8/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5481d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5481d old Poll was fielded 5481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bobby Scott 39.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
5/8/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	547	±4.2	unknown	5481d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5481d old Poll was fielded 5481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Bobby Scott 39.0 · Jamie Radtke 34.0	poll arch
5/4/2011	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	1040	±3.5	unknown	4 scored polls5485d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 5485d old Poll was fielded 5485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Tim Kaine 46.0 · George Allen 46.0	poll arch
5/4/2011	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	1040	±3.5	unknown	4 scored polls5485d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 5485d old Poll was fielded 5485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Tim Kaine 57.0 · Jamie Radtke 31.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 47.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · Bob Marshall 35.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 49.0 · Jamie Radtke 33.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Boucher 42.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Boucher 40.0 · Bob Marshall 32.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Boucher 40.0 · Jamie Radtke 29.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Perriello 41.0 · George Allen 48.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Perriello 39.0 · Bob Marshall 35.0	poll arch
2/27/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	524	±3.5	unknown	5551d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5551d old Poll was fielded 5551 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Periello 40.0 · Jamie Radtke 32.0	poll arch
12/9/2010	Clarus Research Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5631d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5631d old Poll was fielded 5631 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Webb 41.0 · George Allen 40.0	poll arch
12/9/2010	Clarus Research Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5631d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5631d old Poll was fielded 5631 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Jim Webb 39.0 · Bob McDonnell 42.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	551	±4.2	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tim Kaine 50.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	551	±4.2	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Perriello 42.0 · George Allen 47.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	551	±4.2	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Webb 49.0 · George Allen 45.0	poll arch
11/13/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	551	±4.2	unknown	5657d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5657d old Poll was fielded 5657 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Webb 48.0 · Bill Bolling 39.0	poll arch
8/3/2009	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	579	—	unknown	6124d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 6124d old Poll was fielded 6124 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Webb 43.0 · George Allen 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 5	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 5	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (11/4/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi