Races · Senate · 2012 · MD

Senate · class II · open seat

Ben Cardin vs Daniel Bongino

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Likely D — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4947d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/23/2012	OpinionWorks	1.00	—	801	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4947d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4947d old Poll was fielded 4947 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ben Cardin 50.0 · Daniel Bongino 24.0 · Rob Sobhani 14.0	poll arch
10/15/2012	The Washington Post	1.92	—(D+2.1)	843	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls4955d old+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4955d old Poll was fielded 4955 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 1.92 Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Ben Cardin 53.0 · Daniel Bongino 22.0 · Rob Sobhani 14.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies	1.00	—	813	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4977d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Ben Cardin 50.0 · Daniel Bongino 22.0 · Rob Sobhani 21.0	poll arch
7/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	569	±4.1	unknown	5781d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5781d old Poll was fielded 5781 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ben Cardin 51.0	poll arch
7/12/2010	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	569	±4.1	unknown	5781d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5781d old Poll was fielded 5781 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ben Cardin 58.0 · Michael Steele 28.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Nov 1	—	+18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/23/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi