Races · house · 2026 · NM
house · open seat
Gabe Vasquez vs Greg Cunningham
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tossup · model 54% D
tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +1.4
80% CI: R +16.1 → D +18.9 · win prob 54%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +1.4
80% CI R +16.1 → D +18.9
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D | Jan 15 | — | +3.5 | — |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | Jun 19 | — | +1.3 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | Jun 19 | — | +3.5 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/4/2026 Tossup via pvi