Races · house · 2018 · KS
house · open seat
Paul Davis vs Steve Watkins
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely R
likely-r
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2018-11-26Total IE spending
$14.9M
For candidates
$2.3M
Against candidates
$12.6M
Latest filing: 11/26/2018
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Steve Watkins (R)
$2.0M for ·
$7.8M against
Cash on hand
$35K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.3M
Total spent
$1.2M
Debts
$528K
Source: FEC
- $3.2M against PATRIOT MAJORITY USA PAC
- $2.4M against DCCC Party
- $1.7M for NRCC Party
- $1.1M against HOUSE MAJORITY PAC Super PAC
- $901K against CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE Super PAC
Paul Davis (D)
$320K for ·
$4.7M against
Cash on hand
$31K
Total raised (cycle)
$4.0M
Total spent
$4.0M
Debts
$18K
Source: FEC
- $4.0M against NRCC Party
- $590K against CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $164K for PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT PAC
- $116K for MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION Super PAC
- $113K against NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND PAC
Steve Fitzgerald (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$9K
Total raised (cycle)
$493K
Total spent
$470K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Kelly Standley (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$0
Total spent
$0
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/7/2026 Likely R via pvi