Races · Governor · 2018 · SC

Governor · open seat

James Smith vs Henry McMaster

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Likely R — · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2748d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 5 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	3792	±1.6	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2748d old Poll was fielded 2748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,792 Sample size of 3,792 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Henry McMaster 54.0 · James Smith 38.0	poll arch
10/14/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	4830	±2.1	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2765d old Poll was fielded 2765 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,830 Sample size of 4,830 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Henry McMaster 56.0 · James Smith 32.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	2692	±1.9	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedhistorical bias R+3.4pt+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,692 Sample size of 2,692 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Henry McMaster 51.0 · James Smith 37.0	poll arch
8/13/2018	The Tarrance Group (R-RGA)	1.00	—	601	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls2827d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2827d old Poll was fielded 2827 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Henry McMaster 52.0 · James Smith 41.0	poll arch
8/9/2018	Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith)	1.00	—	605	±4.1	unknown	no scored polls2831d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2831d old Poll was fielded 2831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Henry McMaster 47.0 · James Smith 43.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 18 total

Henry McMaster (R)

15 endorsements · source

Elected officials (5)

Bobby Harrell — former Speaker of South Carolina House of Representatives [ 25 ]
Kevin L. Bryant — 91st lieutenant governor of South Carolina and defeated candidate in gubernatorial Republican primary [ 27 ]
Knox H. White — mayor of Greenville [ 32 ]
[ 24 ] — imer, state senator [ 24 ]
[ 28 ] — vis, state senator [ 28 ]

Newspapers (1)

Phil Robertson — star of Duck Dynasty [ 31 ]

Individuals / celebrities (1)

Elise Bidwell — member of South Carolina Educational Television Commission

Other (8)

Catherine Templeton — businesswoman and defeated candidate in gubernatorial Republican primary
Maggie's List — [ 26 ]
McGill — 40–50%
McMaster — 60–70%
Ralph Norman — member of the United States House of Representatives from South Carolina [ 24 ]
Templeton — 40–50%
Warren — 30–40%
[ 29 ] — Kinney, former chairman of the State Ports Authority, later chosen as Warren's running mate [ 29 ]

James Smith (D)

3 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Doug Jones — U.S. senator from Alabama [ 55 ]

Other (2)

Smith — 70–80%
Willis — 40–50%

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Oct 26	—	-9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe R	Nov 4	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 5	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 92 months ago (10/31/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi