Races · Governor · 2018 · PA

Governor · open seat

Tom Wolf vs Scott Wagner

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Tilt R — · 20 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2744d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 20 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 20 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:20 of 20 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2018	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	1833	—	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt2744d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 2744d old Poll was fielded 2744 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,833 Sample size of 1,833 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tom Wolf 53.0 · Scott Wagner 42.0	poll arch
11/3/2018	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	±4.6	unknown	2745d oldbias D+1.5pt+1 2745d old Poll was fielded 2745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 54.0 · Scott Wagner 39.0	poll arch
11/1/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	421	±5.5	unknown	2747d oldtracks editorial consensus 2747d old Poll was fielded 2747 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 58.0 · Scott Wagner 37.0	poll arch
10/28/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	214	±9.5	LV	n=2142751d old+2 n=214 Sample size of 214 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.7pt — wider than typical. 2751d old Poll was fielded 2751 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Wolf 59.0 · Scott Wagner 33.0	poll arch
10/2/2018	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	1188	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt2777d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 2777d old Poll was fielded 2777 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 48.0 · Scott Wagner 36.0	poll arch
9/23/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	204	—	LV	n=2042786d old+2 n=204 Sample size of 204 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.9pt — wider than typical. 2786d old Poll was fielded 2786 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Wolf 52.0 · Scott Wagner 30.0	poll arch
9/20/2018	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1080	±3.0	unknown	2789d oldtracks editorial consensus 2789d old Poll was fielded 2789 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 55.0 · Scott Wagner 38.0	poll arch
9/19/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	404	±5.5	unknown	2790d oldtracks editorial consensus 2790d old Poll was fielded 2790 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 55.0 · Scott Wagner 36.0	poll arch
9/13/2018	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt2796d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 2796d old Poll was fielded 2796 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 52.0 · Scott Wagner 40.0	poll arch
8/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	222	—	LV	n=2222814d old+2 n=222 Sample size of 222 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.6pt — wider than typical. 2814d old Poll was fielded 2814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Wolf 52.0 · Scott Wagner 35.0	poll arch
8/16/2018	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	713	±4.2	unknown	bias D+2.4pt2824d old+1 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 2824d old Poll was fielded 2824 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 54.0 · Scott Wagner 40.0	poll arch
8/15/2018	Commonwealth Leaders Fund	1.00	R	2012	±3.6	unknown	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 2825d old Poll was fielded 2825 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,012 Sample size of 2,012 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Tom Wolf 46.0 · Scott Wagner 43.0	poll arch
6/25/2018	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	2876d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 2876d old Poll was fielded 2876 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 49.0 · Scott Wagner 36.0	poll arch
6/10/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	472	±6.5	unknown	2891d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 2891d old Poll was fielded 2891 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 48.0 · Scott Wagner 29.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	414	±5.5	unknown	2950d oldtracks editorial consensus 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 47.0 · Scott Wagner 31.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	414	±5.5	unknown	2950d oldtracks editorial consensus 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 47.0 · Paul Mango 27.0	poll arch
4/12/2018	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	414	±5.5	unknown	2950d oldtracks editorial consensus 2950d old Poll was fielded 2950 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 46.0 · Laura Ellsworth 26.0	poll arch
3/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	137	±6.8	unknown	n=1372967d old+1 n=137 Sample size of 137 respondents implies a margin of error around ±8.4pt — wider than typical. 2967d old Poll was fielded 2967 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 38.0 · Scott Wagner 21.0	poll arch
3/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	143	±6.8	unknown	n=1432967d old+1 n=143 Sample size of 143 respondents implies a margin of error around ±8.2pt — wider than typical. 2967d old Poll was fielded 2967 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 49.0 · Paul Mango 22.0	poll arch
3/26/2018	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	143	±6.8	unknown	n=1432967d old+1 n=143 Sample size of 143 respondents implies a margin of error around ±8.2pt — wider than typical. 2967d old Poll was fielded 2967 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Tom Wolf 51.0 · Laura Ellsworth 22.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 39 total

Tom Wolf (D)

39 endorsements · source

Elected officials (31)

Allyson Schwartz — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district (2005–2015) [ 12 ]
Andy Dinniman — state senator from the 19th district (2006–2020) [ 25 ]
Anthony Williams — state senator from the 8th congressional district (1999–present) [ 25 ]
Bernie Sanders — U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) (Independent) [ 16 ]
Bill Peduto — 60th mayor of Pittsburgh (2014–2022) [ 5 ]
Bob Brady — U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (1998–2019) [ 23 ]
Carolyn Comitta — state representative from the 156th district (2017–2020) [ 15 ]
Christine Tartaglione — state senator from the 2nd district (1995–present) [ 23 ]
Dan Frankel — state representative from the 23rd district (1999–present) [ 12 ]
Daylin Leach — state senator from the 17th district (2009–2020) [ 23 ]
Ed Gainey — state representative from the 24th district (2013–2022)
Ed Rendell — 45th governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011) [ 17 ]
Eric Papenfuse — Mayor of Harrisburg (2014–2022) [ 18 ]
Frank Dermody — state representative from the 33rd district (1991–2020), Pennsylvania House Democratic Leader (2011–2020) [ 12 ]
Jay Costa — state senator from the 43rd district (1996–present) Pennsylvania Senate Minority Leader (2011–present) [ 24 ]
Jim Brewster — state senator from the 45th district (2010–present) [ 24 ]
John Galloway — state representative from the 140th district (2007–present) [ 15 ]
John Yudichak — state senator from the 14th district (2011–2022) [ 23 ]
Joseph Markosek — state representative from the 25th district (1983–2018) [ 12 ]
Judy Schwank — state senator from the 11th district (2011–present) [ 23 ]
Larry Farnese — state senator from the 1st district (2009–2020) [ 25 ]
Lisa Boscola — state senator from the 18th district (1999–present) [ 23 ]
Mary Jo Daley — state representative from the 148th district (2013–present) [ 12 ]
Matthew Bradford — state representative from the 70th district (2009–present) [ 12 ]
Pete Buttigieg — 32nd mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020)
Rich Kasunic — state senator from the 32nd district (1995–2015) [ 23 ]
Shirley Kitchen — state senator from the 3rd district (1996–2016) [ 23 ]
Tim Briggs — state representative from the 149th district (2009–present) [ 12 ]
Tom Wolf — 47th governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023)
Vincent Hughes — state senator from the 7th district (1994–present) [ 23 ]
Wayne Fontana — state senator from the 42nd district (2005–present) [ 24 ]

Organizations / unions (1)

Bobby Henon — Philadelphia City Council member from the 6th district (2012–2022) [ 23 ]

Other (7)

Jonathan Saidel — Philadelphia city controller (1990–2006) [ 23 ]
National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws — [ 20 ]
Pittsburgh DSA — [ 26 ]
Stonewall Democrats — l Democrats [ 21 ]
The Philadelphia Inquirer — [ 22 ]
United Steelworkers — District 10 [ 19 ]
Wisconsin's 1st congressional district — for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

4 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Oct 26	—	+9.0	—
FiveThirtyEight	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—
RealClearPolitics	Safe D	Nov 4	—	+18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 5	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 91 months ago (11/4/2018) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi