Races · Governor · 2016 · IN

Governor · open seat

John Gregg vs Eric Holcomb

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Likely R — · 29 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 29 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 29 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:29 of 29 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1700	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=1,700 Sample size of 1,700 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Eric Holcomb 47.0 · John Gregg 49.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	1383	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Eric Holcomb 46.0 · John Gregg 49.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	WTHR/Howey	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3475d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 42.0 · John Gregg 42.0 · Rex Bell 5.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	923	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Eric Holcomb 47.0 · John Gregg 47.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	790	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Eric Holcomb 48.0 · John Gregg 47.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	399	±4.9	unknown	bias D+2.9ptn=399+2 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. n=399 Sample size of 399 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Eric Holcomb 38.0 · John Gregg 42.0 · Rex Bell 4.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	638	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Eric Holcomb 49.0 · John Gregg 47.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	674	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+1 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Eric Holcomb 47.0 · John Gregg 48.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3479d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Eric Holcomb 42.0 · John Gregg 48.0 · Rex Bell 4.0	poll arch
10/24/2016	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	596	±2.3	unknown	bias D+2.9pt3485d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 3485d old Poll was fielded 3485 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Eric Holcomb 38.0 · John Gregg 42.0 · Rex Bell 4.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Ball State University (PSRAI)	1.00	—	544	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3493d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 43.0 · John Gregg 48.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3496d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Eric Holcomb 38.0 · John Gregg 50.0 · Rex Bell 4.0	poll arch
10/13/2016	BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3496d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3496d old Poll was fielded 3496 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 42.0 · John Gregg 42.0 · Rex Bell 3.0	poll arch
10/5/2016	WTHR/Howey	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3504d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3504d old Poll was fielded 3504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 39.0 · John Gregg 41.0 · Rex Bell 5.0	poll arch
9/8/2016	WTHR/Howey	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3531d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3531d old Poll was fielded 3531 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 35.0 · John Gregg 40.0 · Rex Bell 6.0	poll arch
8/16/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	403	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3554d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3554d old Poll was fielded 3554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Eric Holcomb 42.0 · John Gregg 41.0 · Rex Bell 4.0	poll arch
8/3/2016	Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3567d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3567d old Poll was fielded 3567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Eric Holcomb 39.0 · John Gregg 46.0 · Rex Bell 6.0	poll arch
7/21/2016	The Tarrance Group	3.77	—(D+1.1)	503	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3580d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3580d old Poll was fielded 3580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Eric Holcomb 34.0 · John Gregg 42.0	poll arch
7/21/2016	The Tarrance Group	3.77	—(D+1.1)	503	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3580d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3580d old Poll was fielded 3580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Susan Brooks 36.0 · John Gregg 41.0	poll arch
7/21/2016	The Tarrance Group	3.77	—(D+1.1)	503	±4.4	unknown	3 scored polls3580d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3580d old Poll was fielded 3580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. weight 3.77 Aggregation weight is 3.77 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Todd Rokita 36.0 · John Gregg 41.0	poll arch
7/18/2016	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3583d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3583d old Poll was fielded 3583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Todd Rokita 45.0 · John Gregg 43.0	poll arch
5/15/2016	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3647d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3647d old Poll was fielded 3647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 40.0 · John Gregg 36.0	poll arch
4/21/2016	WTHR/Howey	1.00	—	500	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls3671d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3671d old Poll was fielded 3671 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 49.0 · John Gregg 45.0	poll arch
6/3/2015	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3994d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3994d old Poll was fielded 3994 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 40.0 · John Gregg 41.0	poll arch
6/3/2015	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3994d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3994d old Poll was fielded 3994 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 42.0 · Glenda Ritz 42.0	poll arch
4/14/2015	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	607	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4044d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4044d old Poll was fielded 4044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 43.0 · John Gregg 37.0	poll arch
4/14/2015	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	607	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4044d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4044d old Poll was fielded 4044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 43.0 · Baron Hill 36.0	poll arch
4/14/2015	Bellwether Research	1.00	—	607	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4044d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4044d old Poll was fielded 4044 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 42.0 · Glenda Ritz 39.0	poll arch
4/9/2015	GQR Research	1.00	L	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4049d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4049d old Poll was fielded 4049 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Mike Pence 47.0 · John Gregg 47.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Aug 12	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 1	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi