Races · Governor · 2014 · SC

Governor · open seat

Vincent Sheheen vs Nikki Haley

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Likely R — · 18 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4210d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 18 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 18 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:18 of 18 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/30/2014	Daily Journal	1.00	—	139	—	unknown	no scored pollsn=139+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=139 Sample size of 139 respondents implies a margin of error around ±8.3pt — wider than typical. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nikki Haley 46.0 · Vincent Sheheen 45.0 · Tom Ervin 2.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1566	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,566 Sample size of 1,566 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 50.0 · Vincent Sheheen 33.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2663	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,663 Sample size of 2,663 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 53.0 · Vincent Sheheen 36.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Crantford Research	1.00	—	688	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4241d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nikki Haley 41.0 · Vincent Sheheen 37.0 · Tom Ervin 7.0	poll arch
9/28/2014	Winthrop University	1.00	—	1082	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4242d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4242d old Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nikki Haley 44.0 · Vincent Sheheen 34.0 · Tom Ervin 4.0	poll arch
9/5/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	793	±3.5	unknown	4265d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4265d old Poll was fielded 4265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nikki Haley 50.0 · Vincent Sheheen 45.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	American Research Group	1.00	—(D+1.1)	600	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4266d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 6 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Nikki Haley 43.0 · Vincent Sheheen 33.0 · Tom Ervin 18.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	833	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 56.0 · Vincent Sheheen 35.0	poll arch
8/26/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4275d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4275d old Poll was fielded 4275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 51.0 · Vincent Sheheen 36.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1186	±5.4	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 55.0 · Vincent Sheheen 38.0	poll arch
7/22/2014	Palmetto Politics Poll	1.00	—	1000	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4310d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4310d old Poll was fielded 4310 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nikki Haley 53.0 · Vincent Sheheen 40.0	poll arch
6/22/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	698	±3.7	unknown	4340d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4340d old Poll was fielded 4340 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nikki Haley 49.0 · Vincent Sheheen 46.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4408d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nikki Haley 52.0 · Vincent Sheheen 37.0	poll arch
10/28/2013	Harper Polling	1.00	—	676	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4577d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4577d old Poll was fielded 4577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nikki Haley 48.0 · Vincent Sheheen 39.0	poll arch
10/16/2013	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	760	±3.5	unknown	4589d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 4589d old Poll was fielded 4589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Nikki Haley 44.0 · Vincent Sheheen 40.0	poll arch
12/9/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4900d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4900d old Poll was fielded 4900 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nikki Haley 44.0 · Vincent Sheheen 46.0	poll arch
12/9/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4900d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4900d old Poll was fielded 4900 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Curtis Loftis 37.0 · Vincent Sheheen 46.0	poll arch
12/9/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4900d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4900d old Poll was fielded 4900 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Glenn McConnell 41.0 · Vincent Sheheen 44.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (10/30/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi