Races · Governor · 2014 · PA

Governor · open seat

Tom Wolf vs Tom Corbett

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Tilt R — · 81 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4211d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 81 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

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Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 81 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:81 of 81 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/29/2014	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	409	±5.0	unknown	4211d oldtracks editorial consensus 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Tom Wolf 51.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	1433	±2.6	unknown	4212d old 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 43.0 · Tom Wolf 50.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Harper Polling	1.00	—	680	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4213d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 40.0 · Tom Wolf 50.0	poll arch
10/26/2014	Franklin & Marshall	1.00	—	326	±5.1	LV	no scored pollsn=326+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=326 Sample size of 326 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 4214d old Poll was fielded 4214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Corbett 40.0 · Tom Wolf 53.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3111	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,111 Sample size of 3,111 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Tom Wolf 52.0	poll arch
10/14/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	1131	±2.9	unknown	4226d old 4226d old Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · Tom Wolf 49.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	907	±3.3	unknown	4235d oldtracks editorial consensus 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Tom Wolf 55.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3283	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,283 Sample size of 3,283 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Tom Wolf 50.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	500	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4241d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Tom Wolf 57.0	poll arch
9/24/2014	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	479	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls4246d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4246d old Poll was fielded 4246 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 28.0 · Tom Wolf 43.0	poll arch
9/22/2014	Franklin & Marshall	1.00	—	231	±6.4	LV	no scored pollsn=231+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=231 Sample size of 231 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.4pt — wider than typical. 4248d old Poll was fielded 4248 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · Tom Wolf 57.0	poll arch
9/18/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	1120	±2.9	unknown	4252d old 4252d old Poll was fielded 4252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 40.0 · Tom Wolf 49.0	poll arch
9/18/2014	Muhlenberg College	1.33	—(D+1.1)	429	±5.0	unknown	4252d oldtracks editorial consensus 4252d old Poll was fielded 4252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Tom Wolf 54.0	poll arch
9/8/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1161	±2.9	unknown	4262d oldtracks editorial consensus 4262d old Poll was fielded 4262 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 35.0 · Tom Wolf 59.0	poll arch
9/3/2014	Harper Polling	1.00	—	665	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4267d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4267d old Poll was fielded 4267 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Tom Wolf 52.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3560	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,560 Sample size of 3,560 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Tom Wolf 50.0	poll arch
8/25/2014	Franklin & Marshall	1.00	—	520	±4.3	unknown	no scored polls4276d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4276d old Poll was fielded 4276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 24.0 · Tom Wolf 49.0	poll arch
8/22/2014	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	500	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls4279d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4279d old Poll was fielded 4279 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 25.0 · Tom Wolf 56.0	poll arch
7/31/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	1214	±2.8	unknown	4301d old 4301d old Poll was fielded 4301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Tom Wolf 50.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	4150	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=4,150 Sample size of 4,150 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Tom Wolf 52.0	poll arch
6/29/2014	Franklin & Marshall	1.00	—	502	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4333d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4333d old Poll was fielded 4333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 25.0 · Tom Wolf 47.0	poll arch
6/2/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1308	±2.7	unknown	4360d oldtracks editorial consensus 4360d old Poll was fielded 4360 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Tom Wolf 53.0	poll arch
6/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	835	±3.4	unknown	4361d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4361d old Poll was fielded 4361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 30.0 · Tom Wolf 55.0	poll arch
5/28/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4365d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4365d old Poll was fielded 4365 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 31.0 · Tom Wolf 51.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Tom Wolf 52.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · John Hanger 40.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 36.0 · Robert McCord 43.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Kathleen McGinty 40.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Allyson Schwartz 44.0	poll arch
2/24/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1405	±2.6	unknown	4458d oldtracks editorial consensus 4458d old Poll was fielded 4458 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · Jack Wagner 44.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Tom Wolf 41.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Tom Corbett 36.0 · Robert McCord 48.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Tom Corbett 35.0 · Allyson Schwartz 44.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Guzzardi 31.0 · Robert McCord 43.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Guzzardi 33.0 · Allyson Schwartz 42.0	poll arch
1/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	717	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4490d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4490d old Poll was fielded 4490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Bob Guzzardi 30.0 · Tom Wolf 38.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · Tom Wolf 44.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · John Hanger 37.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Robert McCord 42.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · Kathleen McGinty 44.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Ed Pawlowski 41.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 37.0 · Allyson Schwartz 45.0	poll arch
12/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1061	±3.0	unknown	4528d oldtracks editorial consensus 4528d old Poll was fielded 4528 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 36.0 · Jack Wagner 48.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 32.0 · Tom Wolf 44.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 32.0 · John Hanger 51.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 31.0 · Robert McCord 50.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 32.0 · Kathleen McGinty 47.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Ed Pawlowski 45.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Allyson Schwartz 48.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 30.0 · Jack Wagner 50.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Jim Gerlach 31.0 · Allyson Schwartz 39.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Mike Kelly 33.0 · Allyson Schwartz 41.0	poll arch
8/8/2013	Benenson Strategy Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4658d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4658d old Poll was fielded 4658 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Allyson Schwartz 49.0	poll arch
6/4/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1032	±3.1	unknown	4723d oldtracks editorial consensus 4723d old Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 35.0 · Robert McCord 43.0	poll arch
6/4/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1032	±3.1	unknown	4723d oldtracks editorial consensus 4723d old Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 35.0 · Allyson Schwartz 45.0	poll arch
5/2/2013	Public Opinion Strategies *	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4756d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4756d old Poll was fielded 4756 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Allyson Schwartz 46.0	poll arch
4/24/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1235	±2.8	unknown	4764d oldtracks editorial consensus 4764d old Poll was fielded 4764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 35.0 · Robert McCord 44.0	poll arch
4/24/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1235	±2.8	unknown	4764d oldtracks editorial consensus 4764d old Poll was fielded 4764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Allyson Schwartz 47.0	poll arch
4/24/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1235	±2.8	unknown	4764d oldtracks editorial consensus 4764d old Poll was fielded 4764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Joe Sestak 48.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Tom Wolf 39.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · John Hanger 41.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 40.0 · Tom Knox 39.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · Robert McCord 38.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Ed Pawlowski 44.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Allyson Schwartz 42.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 38.0 · Joe Sestak 47.0	poll arch
3/11/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1116	±2.9	unknown	4808d oldtracks editorial consensus 4808d old Poll was fielded 4808 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Corbett 39.0 · Mike Stack 40.0	poll arch
3/10/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	504	±4.4	unknown	4809d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4809d old Poll was fielded 4809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 33.0 · Tom Wolf 42.0	poll arch
3/10/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	504	±4.4	unknown	4809d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4809d old Poll was fielded 4809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · John Hanger 41.0	poll arch
3/10/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	504	±4.4	unknown	4809d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4809d old Poll was fielded 4809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Robert McCord 45.0	poll arch
3/10/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	504	±4.4	unknown	4809d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4809d old Poll was fielded 4809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Allyson Schwartz 45.0	poll arch
3/10/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	504	±4.4	unknown	4809d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4809d old Poll was fielded 4809 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 34.0 · Joe Sestak 45.0	poll arch
1/17/2013	Benenson Strategy Group	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4861d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4861d old Poll was fielded 4861 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · Allyson Schwartz 50.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Tom Wolf 29.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · John Hanger 37.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · Kathleen Kane 42.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Robert McCord 35.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Michael Nutter 38.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 40.0 · Ed Rendell 46.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 41.0 · Allyson Schwartz 34.0	poll arch
1/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	675	±3.8	unknown	4872d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4872d old Poll was fielded 4872 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Corbett 42.0 · Joe Sestak 36.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Nov 3	—	+9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely D	Nov 3	—	+9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Nov 3	—	+18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (10/29/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi