Races · Governor · 2014 · OH

Governor · open seat

Ed FitzGerald vs John Kasich

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Lean R — · 42 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4209d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 42 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

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Lean R

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 42 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:42 of 42 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/31/2014	The Columbus Dispatch	1.00	—	1009	±3.3	unknown	no scored polls4209d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 62.0 · Ed FitzGerald 34.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	803	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4210d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 51.0 · Ed FitzGerald 36.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2728	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,728 Sample size of 2,728 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 54.0 · Ed FitzGerald 35.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3082	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,082 Sample size of 3,082 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 52.0 · Ed FitzGerald 36.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	999	±3.1	unknown	4241d old 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 57.0 · Ed FitzGerald 35.0	poll arch
9/9/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	780	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4261d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4261d old Poll was fielded 4261 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 50.0 · Ed FitzGerald 30.0	poll arch
9/5/2014	The Columbus Dispatch	1.00	—	1185	±2.9	unknown	no scored polls4265d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4265d old Poll was fielded 4265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 59.0 · Ed FitzGerald 29.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2978	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,978 Sample size of 2,978 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 50.0 · Ed FitzGerald 37.0	poll arch
8/31/2014	Buckeye Poll	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4270d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4270d old Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 46.0 · Ed FitzGerald 27.0	poll arch
8/9/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	801	—	unknown	4292d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4292d old Poll was fielded 4292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 50.0 · Ed FitzGerald 44.0	poll arch
7/28/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1366	±2.7	unknown	4304d old 4304d old Poll was fielded 4304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 48.0 · Ed FitzGerald 36.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	3624	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,624 Sample size of 3,624 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 49.0 · Ed FitzGerald 43.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	889	—	unknown	4322d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 45.0 · Ed FitzGerald 44.0	poll arch
5/12/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1174	±2.9	unknown	4381d old 4381d old Poll was fielded 4381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 50.0 · Ed FitzGerald 35.0	poll arch
5/11/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	740	—	unknown	4382d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4382d old Poll was fielded 4382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 47.0 · Ed FitzGerald 43.0	poll arch
5/8/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4385d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4385d old Poll was fielded 4385 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 45.0 · Ed FitzGerald 38.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	618	±4.0	unknown	4395d oldtracks editorial consensus 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 46.0 · Ed FitzGerald 36.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	618	±4.0	unknown	4395d oldtracks editorial consensus 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Kasich 50.0 · Larry Ealy 25.0 · Anita Rios 7.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	857	±3.4	unknown	4408d old 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 47.0 · Ed FitzGerald 41.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1050	—	unknown	4408d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 44.0 · Ed FitzGerald 44.0	poll arch
2/17/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1370	±2.7	unknown	4465d old 4465d old Poll was fielded 4465 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 43.0 · Ed FitzGerald 38.0	poll arch
12/8/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1011	±3.1	unknown	4536d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4536d old Poll was fielded 4536 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 40.0 · Ed FitzGerald 38.0	poll arch
11/24/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1361	±2.7	unknown	4550d old 4550d old Poll was fielded 4550 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 44.0 · Ed FitzGerald 37.0	poll arch
11/6/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	595	±4.0	unknown	4568d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4568d old Poll was fielded 4568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 41.0 · Ed FitzGerald 41.0	poll arch
8/19/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	551	±4.2	unknown	4647d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4647d old Poll was fielded 4647 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 35.0 · Ed FitzGerald 38.0	poll arch
6/23/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	941	±3.2	unknown	4704d old 4704d old Poll was fielded 4704 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 47.0 · Ed FitzGerald 33.0	poll arch
6/23/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	941	±3.2	unknown	4704d old 4704d old Poll was fielded 4704 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 47.0 · Richard Cordray 36.0	poll arch
4/15/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1138	±2.9	unknown	4773d old 4773d old Poll was fielded 4773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 46.0 · Ed FitzGerald 37.0	poll arch
4/15/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1138	±2.9	unknown	4773d old 4773d old Poll was fielded 4773 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 45.0 · Richard Cordray 38.0	poll arch
2/26/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1011	±3.1	unknown	4821d old 4821d old Poll was fielded 4821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 45.0 · Ed FitzGerald 35.0	poll arch
2/26/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1011	±3.1	unknown	4821d old 4821d old Poll was fielded 4821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 44.0 · Richard Cordray 38.0	poll arch
2/26/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1011	±3.1	unknown	4821d old 4821d old Poll was fielded 4821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 44.0 · Tim Ryan 36.0	poll arch
2/26/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1011	±3.1	unknown	4821d old 4821d old Poll was fielded 4821 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Kasich 45.0 · Betty Sutton 38.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 43.0 · Michael B. Coleman 36.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 41.0 · Richard Cordray 40.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 45.0 · Dennis Kucinich 35.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 41.0 · Tim Ryan 33.0	poll arch
6/24/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	5068d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5068d old Poll was fielded 5068 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 44.0 · Ted Strickland 42.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	875	±3.3	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 42.0 · Richard Cordray 42.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	875	±3.3	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 40.0 · Tim Ryan 41.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	875	±3.3	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 40.0 · Ted Strickland 47.0	poll arch
1/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	820	±3.4	unknown	5215d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5215d old Poll was fielded 5215 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Kasich 36.0 · Ted Strickland 56.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (10/31/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi