Races · Governor · 2014 · IA

Governor · open seat

Jack Hatch vs Terry Branstad

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Lean R — · 72 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4206d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 72 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Lean R

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 72 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:72 of 72 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1265	±2.8	unknown	4206d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4206d old Poll was fielded 4206 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	778	±3.5	unknown	4207d oldtracks editorial consensus 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 52.0 · Jack Hatch 41.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	Iowa Poll	1.00	—	701	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4209d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 59.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1112	±4.4	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 49.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	911	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4210d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 53.0 · Jack Hatch 36.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Reuters/Ipsos	1.21	neutral(D+0.6)	1129	±3.3	unknown	4211d old 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 57.0 · Jack Hatch 34.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	817	±3.4	unknown	4213d old 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 56.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	Loras College	0.74	—(D+1.9)	1121	±2.9	unknown	4 scored polls4216d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 55.0 · Jack Hatch 34.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2322	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,322 Sample size of 2,322 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	772	±3.5	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4218d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 59.0 · Jack Hatch 36.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	964	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4219d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Terry Branstad 53.0 · Jack Hatch 43.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	423	±4.8	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt4219d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 58.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	964	±3.2	unknown	4219d oldtracks editorial consensus 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 55.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
10/14/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4226d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4226d old Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 54.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	967	±3.2	unknown	4227d oldtracks editorial consensus 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 54.0 · Jack Hatch 39.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	The Iowa Poll	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 54.0 · Jack Hatch 39.0	poll arch
10/3/2014	Magellan	1.00	—	1299	±2.8	unknown	no scored polls4237d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4237d old Poll was fielded 4237 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 55.0 · Jack Hatch 39.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	778	±3.5	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 58.0 · Jack Hatch 36.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2359	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,359 Sample size of 2,359 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 52.0 · Jack Hatch 39.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	522	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4240d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Jack Hatch 43.0	poll arch
9/28/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1192	±2.8	unknown	4242d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4242d old Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Jack Hatch 36.0	poll arch
9/24/2014	Iowa Poll	1.00	—	546	±4.2	unknown	no scored polls4246d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4246d old Poll was fielded 4246 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 34.0	poll arch
9/18/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4252d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4252d old Poll was fielded 4252 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 46.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	600	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4254d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
9/15/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1167	±2.9	unknown	4255d old 4255d old Poll was fielded 4255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 60.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
9/5/2014	Loras College	0.74	—(D+1.9)	1200	±2.8	unknown	4 scored polls4265d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4265d old Poll was fielded 4265 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 56.0 · Jack Hatch 34.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1764	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,764 Sample size of 1,764 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Jack Hatch 38.0	poll arch
8/26/2014	Suffolk	1.00	—	500	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4275d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4275d old Poll was fielded 4275 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
8/24/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	915	±3.2	unknown	4277d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4277d old Poll was fielded 4277 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
8/12/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4289d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4289d old Poll was fielded 4289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 52.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2044	±2.7	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,044 Sample size of 2,044 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
7/18/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1179	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4314d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4314d old Poll was fielded 4314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Jack Hatch 42.0	poll arch
7/13/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	1599	±2.5	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4319d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4319d old Poll was fielded 4319 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,599 Sample size of 1,599 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 53.0 · Jack Hatch 38.0	poll arch
6/16/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1277	±2.7	unknown	4346d old 4346d old Poll was fielded 4346 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Jack Hatch 38.0	poll arch
6/5/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	665	±3.8	unknown	4357d oldtracks editorial consensus 4357d old Poll was fielded 4357 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
6/5/2014	Loras College	0.74	—(D+1.9)	600	±4.0	unknown	4 scored polls4357d old 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4357d old Poll was fielded 4357 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 52.0 · Jack Hatch 38.0	poll arch
6/5/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4357d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4357d old Poll was fielded 4357 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 49.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
5/19/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	914	±3.3	unknown	4374d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4374d old Poll was fielded 4374 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
5/19/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	914	±3.3	unknown	4374d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4374d old Poll was fielded 4374 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Hoefling 30.0 · Jack Hatch 37.0	poll arch
5/15/2014	Global Strategy Group	1.00	—	602	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4378d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4378d old Poll was fielded 4378 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 31 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Jack Hatch 40.0	poll arch
5/1/2014	Victory Enterprises	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4392d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4392d old Poll was fielded 4392 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 33.0	poll arch
4/24/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	600	±4.0	unknown	4399d oldtracks editorial consensus 4399d old Poll was fielded 4399 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 45.0 · Jack Hatch 43.0	poll arch
4/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	677	±3.8	unknown	4403d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4403d old Poll was fielded 4403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 43.0 · Jack Hatch 38.0	poll arch
4/8/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	4415d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4415d old Poll was fielded 4415 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 42.0 · Jack Hatch 32.0	poll arch
4/8/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	4415d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4415d old Poll was fielded 4415 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Tom Hoefling 23.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
3/10/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1411	±2.6	unknown	4444d old 4444d old Poll was fielded 4444 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Terry Branstad 46.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
2/26/2014	Selzer & Co.	1.00	—	703	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4456d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4456d old Poll was fielded 4456 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+11.8pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 11.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 44.0 · Jack Hatch 29.0	poll arch
2/23/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	869	±3.3	unknown	4459d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4459d old Poll was fielded 4459 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 36.0	poll arch
2/23/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	869	±3.3	unknown	4459d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4459d old Poll was fielded 4459 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Tom Hoefling 30.0 · Jack Hatch 34.0	poll arch
12/15/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1617	±2.4	unknown	4529d oldn=1,617 4529d old Poll was fielded 4529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,617 Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Terry Branstad 49.0 · Jack Hatch 33.0	poll arch
12/15/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1617	±2.4	unknown	4529d oldn=1,617 4529d old Poll was fielded 4529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,617 Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Terry Branstad 49.0 · Bob Krause 31.0	poll arch
12/15/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1617	±2.4	unknown	4529d oldn=1,617 4529d old Poll was fielded 4529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,617 Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Tyler Olson 32.0	poll arch
12/11/2013	Selzer & Co.	1.00	—	325	—	unknown	no scored pollsn=325+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=325 Sample size of 325 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 4533d old Poll was fielded 4533 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+11.8pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 11.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 52.0 · Jack Hatch 29.0	poll arch
12/11/2013	Selzer & Co.	1.00	—	325	—	unknown	no scored pollsn=325+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=325 Sample size of 325 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. 4533d old Poll was fielded 4533 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+11.8pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 11.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 51.0 · Tyler Olson 28.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Jack Hatch 35.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Chet Culver 42.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Michael Gronstal 36.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Tyler Olson 33.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kim Reynolds 38.0 · Chet Culver 42.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kim Reynolds 37.0 · Michael Gronstal 37.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kim Reynolds 36.0 · Jack Hatch 33.0	poll arch
7/7/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	668	±3.8	unknown	4690d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4690d old Poll was fielded 4690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Kim Reynolds 36.0 · Tyler Olson 32.0	poll arch
6/5/2013	Selzer & Co.	1.00	—	591	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4722d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4722d old Poll was fielded 4722 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+11.8pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 11.8pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Terry Branstad 55.0 · Jack Hatch 27.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Jack Hatch 33.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Bruce Braley 41.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 50.0 · Chet Culver 40.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 48.0 · Dave Loebsack 38.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Tyler Olson 31.0	poll arch
2/3/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	846	—	unknown	4844d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4844d old Poll was fielded 4844 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 47.0 · Tom Vilsack 46.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1181	±2.9	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 44.0 · Bruce Braley 40.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1181	±2.9	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 44.0 · Chet Culver 42.0	poll arch
5/6/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1181	±2.9	unknown	5117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5117d old Poll was fielded 5117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Terry Branstad 43.0 · Tom Vilsack 46.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 3	—	-9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Nov 3	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/3/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean R via pvi