Races · Governor · 2014 · AK

Governor · open seat

Byron Mallott vs Sean Parnell

AL Governor →

Likely R — · 26 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 26 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 26 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:26 of 26 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1052	±3.0	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 45.0 · Bill Walker 46.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	887	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4210d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 43.0 · Bill Walker 50.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	561	±9.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 42.0 · Bill Walker 39.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Hellenthal & Associates	1.00	—	403	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4219d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sean Parnell 44.0 · Bill Walker 43.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	700	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4228d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 41.0 · Bill Walker 50.0	poll arch
10/7/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	706	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4233d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sean Parnell 42.0 · Bill Walker 37.0	poll arch
10/6/2014	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	704	±3.5	LV	4234d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 45.0 · Bill Walker 51.0	poll arch
10/2/2014	Hickman Analytics	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4238d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4238d old Poll was fielded 4238 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sean Parnell 46.0 · Bill Walker 38.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	593	±5.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 40.0 · Bill Walker 45.0	poll arch
9/24/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	713	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4246d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4246d old Poll was fielded 4246 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 42.0 · Bill Walker 47.0	poll arch
9/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	880	±3.3	unknown	4249d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4249d old Poll was fielded 4249 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 41.0 · Bill Walker 42.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	Hays Research/AFL-CIO	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4256d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sean Parnell 30.0 · Bill Walker 37.0	poll arch
8/22/2014	Hays Research *	1.00	—	474	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls4279d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4279d old Poll was fielded 4279 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Sean Parnell 40.0 · Bill Walker 43.0	poll arch
8/21/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4280d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4280d old Poll was fielded 4280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 47.0 · Byron Mallott 36.0	poll arch
8/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	673	±3.8	unknown	4300d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4300d old Poll was fielded 4300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 37.0 · Byron Mallott 22.0 · Bill Walker 20.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	450	±5.2	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+1 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Sean Parnell 55.0 · Byron Mallott 29.0	poll arch
5/11/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	582	±4.1	unknown	4382d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4382d old Poll was fielded 4382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 37.0 · Byron Mallott 27.0 · Bill Walker 17.0	poll arch
2/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	850	±3.4	unknown	4481d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4481d old Poll was fielded 4481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 41.0 · Byron Mallott 25.0 · Bill Walker 16.0	poll arch
7/28/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	890	±3.3	unknown	4669d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4669d old Poll was fielded 4669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 51.0 · Ethan Berkowitz 38.0	poll arch
7/28/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	890	±3.3	unknown	4669d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4669d old Poll was fielded 4669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 54.0 · Hollis French 33.0	poll arch
7/28/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	890	±3.3	unknown	4669d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4669d old Poll was fielded 4669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 53.0 · Les Gara 33.0	poll arch
7/28/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	890	±3.3	unknown	4669d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4669d old Poll was fielded 4669 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 52.0 · Bill Wielechowski 33.0	poll arch
2/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1129	±2.9	unknown	4842d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4842d old Poll was fielded 4842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 50.0 · Ethan Berkowitz 41.0	poll arch
2/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1129	±2.9	unknown	4842d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4842d old Poll was fielded 4842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 52.0 · Scott McAdams 34.0	poll arch
2/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1129	±2.9	unknown	4842d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4842d old Poll was fielded 4842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 51.0 · Mike Navarre 29.0	poll arch
2/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1129	±2.9	unknown	4842d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4842d old Poll was fielded 4842 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Sean Parnell 51.0 · Joe Paskvan 25.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

2 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi