Races · Governor · 2012 · IN

Governor · open seat

John R. Gregg vs Mike Pence

← DE Governor MO Governor →

Likely R — · 6 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4940d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 6 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 6 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:6 of 6 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
10/30/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4940d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4940d old Poll was fielded 4940 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 47.0 · John R. Gregg 40.0 · Rupert Boneham 5.0	poll arch
10/21/2012	Benenson Strategy Group	1.00	—	701	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls4949d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4949d old Poll was fielded 4949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 44.0 · John R. Gregg 38.0 · Rupert Boneham 6.0	poll arch
10/11/2012	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	470	±5.6	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4959d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4959d old Poll was fielded 4959 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 49.0 · John R. Gregg 38.0	poll arch
9/23/2012	Howey Politics/DePauw University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4977d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4977d old Poll was fielded 4977 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: DePauw University Commissioned by DePauw University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mike Pence 47.0 · John R. Gregg 34.0 · Rupert Boneham 5.0	poll arch
8/9/2012	Market Research Insight	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls5022d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5022d old Poll was fielded 5022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 50.0 · John R. Gregg 32.0 · Rupert Boneham 3.0	poll arch
3/27/2012	Market Research Insight	1.00	—	503	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls5157d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 5157d old Poll was fielded 5157 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Mike Pence 44.0 · John R. Gregg 31.0 · Rupert Boneham 5.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely R	Nov 1	—	-9.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Likely R	Nov 5	—	-9.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely R	Nov 5	—	-9.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 165 months ago (10/30/2012) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi